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Wed Jun 13, 2018, 10:23 AM

Japan faces tougher national security environment following US-N. Korea summit

The summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on June 12 in Singapore produced little detail about how to proceed with denuclearization and dismantling North Korea's ballistic missile program, leaving little hope for an improved national security involvement for Japan.

If the United States chooses to proceed with negotiations on the elimination of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, Japan's geopolitical position could become worse than now. Future talks between Washington and Pyongyang are likely to substantially affect Tokyo's national security policy.

A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official did not sound positive about the outcome of the summit. "I still cannot believe the meeting actually took place, and I am skeptical about the realization of denuclearization." The official's remark is a reflection of North Korea's repeated failures to keep past promises on eliminating its nuclear weapons program. Pyongyang voiced its intention to denuclearize in the 1994 framework agreement with the United States and in the joint statement in 2005 of the Six-Party Talks involving its neighbors and the United States.

http://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20180613/p2a/00m/0na/020000c

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Reply Japan faces tougher national security environment following US-N. Korea summit (Original post)
Troll2 Jun 13 OP
quad489 Jun 13 #1
Tovera Jun 13 #2
Troll2 Jun 13 #3

Response to Troll2 (Original post)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 11:17 AM

1. How did the US-NK meeting make it a ''tougher national security environment'' for Japan?

"Japan faces tougher national security environment following US-N. Korea summit"

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Response to quad489 (Reply #1)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 12:46 PM

2. I'm not sure I understand that statement, either.

But to speculate, I think it might be a combination of the suspension of war games with South Korea, which is seen as a deterrent, and skepticism that North Korea will actually follow through with dismantling their nuclear weapons program.

Japan has little to fear from North Korea’s conventional military. “Demilitarized” Japan actually has one of the world’s more powerful militaries, ranking as high as #4, right behind the Big 3 of the US, Russia, and China on Credit Suisse’s rather meticulous ranking. Japan could rather easily crush NK in a conventional conflict. It’s the nukes that worry them, as much from fallout after a strike on South Korea as as any possible attack on Japan itself.

I can’t see any reason for increased national security fears by Japan on economic grounds, although a modernized NK would be another rPacific competitor. But it would also be a potential market for Japanese heavy industrial infrastructure products, etc.

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Response to Tovera (Reply #2)

Wed Jun 13, 2018, 01:00 PM

3. Yes, it's the worry that the US will focus on ICBM removal and forces draw down.

While NK keeps nuclear IRBMs.

A unified Korea would be a greater competitor to Japan as well. NK has lots of mineral resources that Japan lacks. South Korea's economy is more dependent on China than Japan, with about a third of its trade being with China.

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