Wed Mar 13, 2019, 10:39 AM

Why North Korea resumed missile site activity

Not all explanations are of equal probability. An analysis of each is appropriate.

The bluff or a military raspberry to the US. The probability of this is low to medium, for unless Washington takes the bait and responds with a resumption of hostile rhetoric or a return to large-scale military exercises that justify Kim’s position, the North would have little or nothing to show for it. This sort of posturing may not impress its domestic audience.

A concession to elites and military. The probability of pandering to the elites and the military is medium to low since Kim does need the support of both groups as the summit has left him empty-handed.

An ICBM launch. The probability of actually test-launching an ICBM is low since that would undoubtedly bring additional US sanctions – and quite probably compel both China and Russia back into stricter sanctions enforcement out of frustration with Pyongyang. Further, there would be no need to transport any of the North’s existing ICBMs to Sohae for that.

Satellite launch. The probability for a satellite launch is medium to high and Sohae is the facility for that. North Korea has always claimed it is within its sovereign right to conduct peaceful space exploration.

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Reply Why North Korea resumed missile site activity (Original post)
Troll2 Mar 13 OP
Salaam Mar 13 #1

Response to Troll2 (Original post)

Wed Mar 13, 2019, 01:35 PM

1. and Kim recognizes how weak and foolish dumb Donnie is.

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