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Wed May 20, 2020, 02:41 PM

I was right, says Israeli prof who predicted the Coronavirus pandemic would play itself out in 70 da

https://www.timesofisrael.com/i-was-right-says-prof-who-predicted-pandemic-would-play-itself-out-in-70-days/?utm_source=whatfinger
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An Israeli professor who made waves in early April for insisting that the coronavirus will play itself out after 70 days regardless of intervention levels says that he has been proved right, and that claims the virus will return in force for a second wave are just speculation.

“It’s very amusing that people talk about a second wave,” Isaac Ben-Israel, a prominent mathematician, chairman of Israel’s Space Agency, and a former general, told The Times of Israel. “How do they know there will be a second wave? And how do they know that it will come in the winter?” However, a public health expert disputed Ben-Israel’s claims and said he “has no clue about epidemiology and public health.”

Ben-Israel said that since he crunched figures on the pandemic some six weeks ago and publicized his theory that COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days, he has been vindicated — and concluded that the “hysteria” he sees around him is “as contagious as biological diseases.”

What is more, he is now arguing that surprise over the radically different mortality rates among infected people in different countries is misplaced, and is putting forward a counterintuitive claim.

“There is a natural assumption that fewer infections means fewer deaths but it’s not correct,” he said, arguing: “There is no explainable relationship between the number of people infected and the number of people who die. The ratio between deaths and infections differs sometimes by a factor of 100 or more between different countries.”

He asserted that mortality rates are unfathomable by any understood logic.

He claimed that the duration of a country’s COVID-19 outbreak is set and won’t vary based on what actions it takes.
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he is right. Everywhere restrictions are lifted the disease is falling, not increasing.

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Reply I was right, says Israeli prof who predicted the Coronavirus pandemic would play itself out in 70 da (Original post)
Da Mannn May 20 OP
Real-life karma May 20 #1
Da Mannn May 20 #2
Real-life karma May 20 #3
Da Mannn May 20 #4
Real-life karma May 20 #5
Daves Not Here Man May 20 #6
bernt-toast May 21 #7

Response to Da Mannn (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2020, 03:49 PM

1. Basic logic says nothing has been proven

If we start from early April when he "made waves" and add 70 days - and that's mid June. So nothing is proven yet, and if you think there will be "almost zero" cases - new or otherwise by mid-June my guess is you'd be WRONG.

If we start from say Mid-February when this shit really heated up in the US and add 70 days we'd have to be looking at around zero cases the week of April 20th. Did that happen? Being that there are 9400 new cases in the US today...no, that didn't happen.

So how has this guy been proved ... right?

But Righty never lies!

Feel free to tell me what I'm missing here. Maybe I'm mis-reading something. But it sure seems that you're just buying into this article based on it telling you what you want to hear.

BTW - Look at the numbers for Georgia the day they reopened, April 24th. That day they had 608 new cases. Today, they had 572. That's not an increase, but statistically that's barely a decrease. Meanwhile, Mass. stayed closed through that period and saw 4946 new cases on April 24th drop to 873 new cases today. Which figure represents a larger decrease, GA or MA?

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Response to Real-life karma (Reply #1)

Wed May 20, 2020, 03:55 PM

2. Keep that fear spin churning and maybe people will trade freedom for security.

all across the country are wanting to go back to normal. THE PEOPLE run this country, not you, not the govt.

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Response to Da Mannn (Reply #2)

Wed May 20, 2020, 04:09 PM

3. I'm not spinning, churning or fearing -

Now, care to address the issue at hand? Your OP claims something has been proved. Yet it seems the only thing that's proven is that Isaac Ben-Israel is talking out his ass and that you're digesting those words so you can also talk out your ass.

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Response to Real-life karma (Reply #3)

Wed May 20, 2020, 04:38 PM

4. Every single one of your models was bad. Why are you so concerned that this might be

correct or not?

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Response to Da Mannn (Reply #4)

Wed May 20, 2020, 04:53 PM

5. What models are you speaking of?

I personally have no models? So I don't understand why you're saying any models are MINE.

Obfuscate much?

Topic is your OP. You started it. What the guy said is provably wrong. Unless I'm mis-reading something. Feel free to clarify. If you're willing. If you can. A nebulous "but your models were bad" ain't an answer.

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Response to Da Mannn (Original post)

Wed May 20, 2020, 05:15 PM

6. It is amazing how lefty perpetrated this on Trump's watch.

I plan on calling for a formal inquery.

We need answers.

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Response to Da Mannn (Original post)

Thu May 21, 2020, 11:31 AM

7. He asserted that mortality rates are unfathomable by any understood logic.

33 identified mutations of spike protein could contribute to differences in death rates.

Different numbers of ACE 2 receptors in different ethnicities could also contribute.

Different ratios of testing vs population certainly contributes.

Different ways of labeling cause of deaths (eg heart attack versus covid) certainly contributes.

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