Politicspolitics538nowcast

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:39 AM

Today's 538 Now-cast has Trump at 54.9, Hillary at 45.1...



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Back on 8-05 the Now-cast was Clinton: 92.9%, Trump: 7.1% ...

32 replies, 1065 views

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Reply Today's 538 Now-cast has Trump at 54.9, Hillary at 45.1... (Original post)
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 OP
joefriday6 Sep 2016 #1
AmandaMatthews Sep 2016 #2
Billy Jingo Sep 2016 #3
specs Sep 2016 #4
Doctor_R Sep 2016 #6
specs Sep 2016 #9
Doctor_R Sep 2016 #10
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #11
Doctor_R Sep 2016 #13
Attila Gorilla Sep 2016 #14
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #22
Attila Gorilla Sep 2016 #26
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #27
Attila Gorilla Sep 2016 #28
specs Sep 2016 #24
NO_NO_DOWN_BADBOY Sep 2016 #20
DDKick Sep 2016 #5
Doctor_R Sep 2016 #7
def_con5 Sep 2016 #8
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #12
WhiskeyMakesMeHappy Sep 2016 #16
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #19
NO_NO_DOWN_BADBOY Sep 2016 #21
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #23
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #30
WhiskeyMakesMeHappy Sep 2016 #15
Carlos W Bush Sep 2016 #17
DoDaMan Sep 2016 #18
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #25
Docbroke Sep 2016 #29
Immacolata Sep 2016 #31
Gamle-ged Sep 2016 #32

Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:44 AM

1. Whoa, that is an important prediction. Obama will have to cheat like mad.

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:48 AM

2. Well I'm surprised. Not happy, but I won't be happy either way in this election. What a freaking

mess. I'll be glad when it's over just so we can quit being lied to like we are idiots on BOTH sides.

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:50 AM

3. That map gives Clinton 273 EC votes

Even if you throw Maine's 2nd to Trump, it is 272.

Odd.

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:52 AM

4. Maine went from likely Clintoon to toss up this morning

Right now (today) looking at internals Donald "the savior" Trump has

Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada and Arizona

Hillary "the Beast" Clinton has

Wisconsin and Virgina

Bringing them to the following totals

Savior 237 vs Beast 221

ETA: Florida is trending Trump, so is Michigan, and Pennsylvania

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Response to specs (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:53 AM

6. Florida is

looking good, and Pa. is coming to their senses.

Things are falling into place.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:58 AM

9. If Trump does good tonight it could help move them over. Granted 3 debates 40 days

are a lifetime in an election season so anything is possible.

But, yes looking good that we can keep the Beast from the white house and maybe, just maybe save our Country from following in the footsteps of all those European countries that have fallen from grace due to Regressive ideologies that have given them nightly terror attacks.

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Response to specs (Reply #9)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:00 AM

10. Keep the

faith...

It's moving the right way.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #6)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:14 AM

11. Florida was Savior of the Nation in 2000, maybe in 2016 as well!...

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Response to Gamle-ged (Reply #11)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:18 AM

13. Think of all that

time we missed fighting glow bull warming though.

Sixteen years down the tubes.



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Response to specs (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:23 AM

14. Trump, "the savior"?

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Response to Attila Gorilla (Reply #14)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 12:08 PM

22. The voters of Florida in 2000, myself included, are AGAIN reporting for duty, if required...

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Response to Gamle-ged (Reply #22)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 01:52 PM

26. I've said that might happen from day one.

Whatever they think of Trump, Republicans don't want a Democrat in the White House. Especially Hillary. Hillary and Bill Clinton are, to the say least, WAY too establishment to draw a groundswell of enthusiasm like Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders had. And she never made much of an attempt to generate that. Instead, she believed Dem insiders when they told her she had this election locked up.

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Response to Attila Gorilla (Reply #26)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 02:18 PM

27. Regardless of party, the "establishment" wants more years of the same reliable "party" they've...

... had for at least eight years. They might prefer a nice, establishment Republican but they'll take a money - hungry Hillary who will do their bidding for future "speaking fees," not a billionaire who can't be safely bribed...

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Response to Gamle-ged (Reply #27)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 02:39 PM

28. Well, your doing what Republicans do and putting him on a pedestal.

At the moment I'm leaning toward wanting Trump to win for a similar but completely different reason. If Clinton wins, establishment Dems will take it as a confirmation that only right wing, Third Way Democrats can win. They'll spike the football, do a 1970s chicken wing dance, laugh their asses off and continue to give global corporations everything they want as long as they funneling money into Democratic Party coffers.

If Trump wins it will be a ridiculous fiasco, but not WWIII. Still, I agree with the real left that corporate Democrats are the biggest danger to this country. At some point the middle class in this country are going to rebel when they realize that there are no livable jobs left and our leaders are responsible.

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Response to Attila Gorilla (Reply #14)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 12:12 PM

24. I understand when your ideology is death and destruction how the term savior could sound funny

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Response to specs (Reply #4)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 11:48 AM

20. not a single Shrillary sign in my neck of the Maine woods

Trump signs started showing up a couple weeks ago, one right down my road. Then 2 around the corner. And a few on the main drag the next town up from me.

Still occasionally see Bernie bumper stickers though. May invest in a BringBackBernie sticker myself

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:52 AM

5. Polls don't matter coming in 5,4,3,2,1

Lol even hiding her doesn't help her numbers anymore.
Honestly this is restoring my faith in the people of America. They are seeing through all the lies hate and distractions being thrown out there in pure desperation.

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Response to DDKick (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:55 AM

7. Someone will be along soon to post a

national poll showing cankles up by 4 or 6 points with a =/- 5.9 MoE that samples 22% more democrats.

National polls don't matter.

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Response to DDKick (Reply #5)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 09:57 AM

8. I'm not her campaign manager

But, I think being out of the public view is killing her numbers. Makes people wonder why Trump can do 3 a day, and no HRC.

She needs to get back out and campaign vigorously.

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Response to def_con5 (Reply #8)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:16 AM

12. If they can't get her meds adjusted, hiding her in the attic might STILL be the better move...

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Response to Gamle-ged (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:31 AM

16. Do you remember Clayton Williams and his ill fated run for TX Governor?

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Response to WhiskeyMakesMeHappy (Reply #16)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 11:10 AM

19. I do, I lived in San Antonio then. But Hillary is no Ann Richards, Hills negatives more than...

... offset Trump's mouth...

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Response to Gamle-ged (Reply #12)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 11:51 AM

21. lol.

I wasn't going to watch the debate tonight, but the thought of watching her melt down or collapse or eyes go all on national teevee is awfully tempting...

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Response to NO_NO_DOWN_BADBOY (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 12:11 PM

23. I might watch, but the highlights will be available afterwards on the networks...

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Response to NO_NO_DOWN_BADBOY (Reply #21)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 03:34 PM

30. So long as the networks don't start showing fields of flowers and play some Debussy until they...

...can bind her into an upright position with her eyes glued open...

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:30 AM

15. I'm sure DUmp is now trashing it as partisan and biased, not to be believed.

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:33 AM

17. Graham?

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 10:52 AM

18. Isn't it amusing how just a few weeks back some of the dems on here

were talking about how great 538 was at prediction.

Now, they have changed their tune.

I am loving it. I hope they choke on Hillary.

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Response to DoDaMan (Reply #18)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 12:12 PM

25. Now, full disclosure, 538 sucked mightily in predicting the Republican primary fight/result. Here...

... is a small.. VERY small portion of how they agonized over their predictive failure...

Our early forecasts of Trump’s nomination chances weren’t based on a statistical model, which may have been most of the problem.

Usually when you see a probability listed at FiveThirtyEight — for example, that Hillary Clinton has a 93 percent chance to win the New Jersey primary— the percentage reflects the output from a statistical model. To be more precise, it’s the output from a computer program that takes inputs (e.g., poll results), runs them through a bunch of computer code, and produces a series of statistics (such as each candidate’s probability of winning and her projected share of the vote), which are then published to our website. The process is, more or less, fully automated: Any time a staffer enters new poll results into our database, the program runs itself and publishes a new set of forecasts.4 There’s a lot of judgment involved when we build the model, but once the campaign begins, we’re just pressing the “go” button and not making judgment calls or tweaking the numbers in individual states.

Anyway, that’s how things usually work at FiveThirtyEight. But it’s not how it worked for those skeptical forecasts about Trump’s chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Despite the lack of a model, we put his chances in percentage terms on a number of occasions. In order of appearance — I may be missing a couple of instances — we put them at 2 percent (in August), 5 percent (in September), 6 percent (in November), around 7 percent (in early December), and 12 percent to 13 percent (in early January). Then, in mid-January, a couple of things swayed us toward a significantly less skeptical position on Trump.

First, it was becoming clearer that Republican “party elites” either didn’t have a plan to stop Trump or had a stupid plan. Also, that was about when we launched our state-by-state forecast models, which showed Trump competitive with Cruz in Iowa and favored in New Hampshire. From that point onward, we were reasonably in line with the consensus view about Trump, although the consensus view shifted around quite a lot. By mid-February, after his win in New Hampshire, we put Trump’s chances of winning the nomination at 45 percent to 50 percent, about where betting markets had him. By late February, after he’d won South Carolina and Nevada, we said, at about the same time as most others, that Trump would “probably be the GOP nominee.”


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

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Response to Gamle-ged (Original post)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 03:05 PM

29. Closer for sure, but your numbers are wrong.

 

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #29)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 03:35 PM

31. His numbers were the Now-cast, and they were correct. For a little while.

It's changed again, now it's Hillary 50.6 to Trump 49.4.

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #29)

Mon Sep 26, 2016, 03:38 PM

32. I showed the "Now-cast"...

Now-cast..
Who would win the election if it were held today


We’re now showing different versions of the model: the polls-only and polls-plus forecasts, and the now-cast (what would happen in an election held today).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

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