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Thu Oct 20, 2016, 03:22 PM

A look at the race for the Senate.

With just a few weeks left until election day I decided to look at the battle for control of the Senate. The lists at the bottom of this post show which states are currently being won by each party. This is based on the current RCP average for each race. Please let me know if I got one of the averages wrong.

The Democratic party is currently poised to gain 3 seats. Illinois, Indiana and Wisconsin.

If this holds on election day, control of the Senate will break down as follows:

Rep - 51
Dem - 47
Ind - 2

Republican
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
New Hampshire
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Utah

Democratic
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Hawaii
Illinois
Indiana
Maryland
Nevada
New York
Oregan
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin

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Arrow 7 replies Author Time Post
Reply A look at the race for the Senate. (Original post)
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 OP
City Kitty Oct 2016 #1
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #3
City Kitty Oct 2016 #4
AgentSterlingArcher Oct 2016 #2
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #5
john262 Oct 2016 #6
smalllivingeddy Oct 2016 #7

Response to FreeWheelBurning (Original post)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 03:34 PM

1. As I Write This Post

Missouri is blue, too.
Kander: 58.9%
Blunt: 41.1%

New Hampshire:
Ayotte: 39.1%
Hassan: 60.9%

Pennsylvania:
McGinty: 55.4%
Toomey: 44.6%

That's just at the time of this post. 538 numbers go up and down several times a day.

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Response to City Kitty (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 03:45 PM

3. When I first saw your numbers I thought those were poll results.

I did a double take on MO and realized you posted % chance of winning.

Missouri is really tight right now. The RCP average has Blunt up by 1 but they only have 2 polls listed from the month of Oct. If you look over the polls since the beginning of August the trend has definitely been in Kander's favor so he definitely has a shot there.

There is a lot more data available for PA. The polls for this week are favoring Toomey but they are all low numbers. The 1.8 spread for Toomey is the largest since early Oct when McGinty had a 2 point spread.

The lead in New Hampshire has gone back and forth several times but the trend right now is in Hassan's favor. The lost two polls in Oct are a tie where as the earlier polls had Ayotte in the lead.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 03:48 PM

4. Yeah, You're Right

It would have been more accurate to post their actual support percentages.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Original post)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 03:36 PM

2. It will only take PA, AZ or NH to flip the Senate now. That's HUGE for the Dems.

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Response to AgentSterlingArcher (Reply #2)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 03:52 PM

5. The Dems may be vulnerable in NV

Heck was in the lead going back to July but Masto has taken the lead recently. The last poll from Oct 14th to 17th has Heck in the lead by 3. It will be interesting to see what the polls do in the next couple of weeks.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #5)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 05:27 PM

6. Most models have Heck with a slight advantage. If Heck wins that may very

well doom the chances the Dems have to retake the Senate.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Original post)

Thu Oct 20, 2016, 05:36 PM

7. 538 also gives the Democrats a better than 50% chance of winning Senate races in

Last edited Thu Oct 20, 2016, 09:39 PM - Edit history (1)

New Hampshire,
Missouri, and
Pennsylvania,

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