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Mon Nov 7, 2016, 09:51 AM

Florida could knock Trump out early on Tuesday evening

6.42 million of Florida's 12.9 million active registered voters have already voted. The following is the breakdown by party.

Dems: 2.55 million
Reps: 2.47 million
Inds: 1.23

The Dems have an 87,000 vote lead if you assume that everyone voted for their parties candidate. That does not take into account the votes from the independents.

Clinton currently has a 1 point lead in the RCP average. Three of the polls used in the average provided a breakdown by party. The following list shows how the unaffiliated voters have been breaking in the polls.

CBS/You Guv - Trump, 47-34
Remington - Trump, 49-36
Quinnipiac - Trump, 46-40

Why is this important?

Right now, again using the RCP average, Clinton has a 298-240 lead in the Electoral College and that includes Florida. If Florida switches to Trump, (Clinton +1 right now) the Electoral College becomes a 269-269 tie.

Trump winning Florida does not mean Clinton loses. Trump still has to win NH, NC, OH, IA, AZ and NV. Out of those states, IA, NV, NC, OH and NH are within 3 with Trump currently in the lead.

Clinton has a couple of states of her own that could be in play. CO is 2.9 for Clinton and PA is 2.4 for Clinton.

If the RCP average holds with the exception of FL, we will have to wait until late Tuesday night to see the results from NV. If FL does remain Clinton, the race is over unless Trump can take MI and PA.







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Reply Florida could knock Trump out early on Tuesday evening (Original post)
FreeWheelBurning Nov 2016 OP
daemons Nov 2016 #1
FreeWheelBurning Nov 2016 #2
daemons Nov 2016 #3
FreeWheelBurning Nov 2016 #4

Response to FreeWheelBurning (Original post)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 09:55 AM

1. If Hillary is at 194 EVs by 10pm Eastern.. it's over. CA, OR, WA, and HI add up to 80 EVs.

Hillary is up double digits in all four of those states.

Which means that soon after the polls close in California..... Hillary will be declared President-Elect.

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Response to daemons (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 10:02 AM

2. How does she get to 194?

Right now she needs FL to do that. (Using RCP avg polls)

If you remove FL from the mix, she is at 181 when counting all of the states east of the Mississippi.
She gets to 195 as you move west and count everyone but CA, WA and OR.
When you add those 3 she gets to 269.

Florida is key both campaigns. If Trump loses FL, it is all over because I do not think he can get MI and PA to make up for that loss. If Clinton loses FL, she only has to pick off one of those other states that I listed that are sitting at 3 or less for Trump right now.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 10:18 AM

3. NH has broken hard for Hillary the past couple days....

That's 4.

She's slightly ahead in NC... that's 15 more.



I agree with you though... if Florida is called for Hillary - the race is over at that moment.

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Response to daemons (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 7, 2016, 10:26 AM

4. There has been one change since I posted my OP

NH is now .6 for Clinton. This morning it was 1.6 for Trump. There was a WMUR poll added to the average that has Clinton at +11. That erased Trump's lead. Looking at the history of the NH polls going back to July, WMUR has had several polls with Clinton enjoying double digit leads when nearly everyone else was at 5 or below. That makes me a little skeptical of that poll. In either event, the RPC average is at .6 for Clinton so that makes FL a non-factor at this point. It will be interesting to see how NH breaks tomorrow night. Close for sure.

North Carolina is showing Trump at 1.4. There are 5 polls being used in the average right now. Two show Clinton in the lead, 2 show Trump in the lead and 1 is a tie. Close race but still leaning Trump as of now.

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