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Mon Apr 15, 2019, 01:21 PM

Kudlow, Economy Absolutely booming on tax day,

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/kudlow-trump-taxes-fed/2019/04/15/id/911716/

5 replies, 122 views

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Reply Kudlow, Economy Absolutely booming on tax day, (Original post)
bruiserboy Apr 15 OP
RCW2014 Apr 15 #1
bruiserboy Apr 15 #2
Isidore Apr 15 #3
bruiserboy Apr 15 #4
Isidore Apr 15 #5

Response to bruiserboy (Original post)

Mon Apr 15, 2019, 01:31 PM

1. I like Larry and miss his saturday radio show he had before joining the trump admin. Hope he

comes out of there unscathed and brings back the show after trump looses the WH.

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Response to RCW2014 (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 15, 2019, 01:40 PM

2. Your TDS is showing RC

Is this just like the last prediction from the left.

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Response to bruiserboy (Original post)

Mon Apr 15, 2019, 04:14 PM

3. NY Fed Q1 GDP Nowcast is 1.4%. Atlanta Fed GDPNow is 2.3%.  ( n/t )

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Response to Isidore (Reply #3)

Mon Apr 15, 2019, 05:37 PM

4. Funny thing about your post

When the very same people were forecasting high numbers we were told the Atlanta Fed was never right and the NY fed was somewhat correct. This is one of those wait and see situations but if I was a betting man I would put my money on Trump, He has a habit of making Democrats look like fools.

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Response to bruiserboy (Reply #4)

Mon Apr 15, 2019, 06:47 PM

5. The early Atlanta Fed forecasts are often not close to the final BEA numbers.

Mostly because the forecasts use just a few data points at the beginning of their quarterly estimates.

For example, the first number they posted for 2019Q1 was 0.3%. Now much later in the process, they are predicting 2.3% growth. One of the Atlanta Fed's early forecasts for 2018Q1 was 5.4%. The final BEA number for that quarter is 2.2%.

I haven't seen anyone track the histories of the various GDP forecasts to see which ones are more or less accurate compared to the BEA numbers - but that would be interesting to see. I really couldn't say which one over time tends to be closer to the BEA figures.

The CBO is projecting that real GDP will be lower this year than last, and then go down further in 2020. We will have to wait and see, but unfortunately it doesn't look like Trump will break the 3.0% annual GDP threshold.

I wouldn't consider average GDP growth numbers (or slightly above average) to be an indicator of a "Booming, Absolutely Booming" economy. YMMV.

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