Politicspolitics

Mon May 13, 2019, 11:42 PM

30% of so called immigrant families are fake.


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14 replies, 184 views

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Reply 30% of so called immigrant families are fake. (Original post)
Let it go May 13 OP
Grumpy Pickle Tuesday #1
Valishin Tuesday #2
Cold Warrior Tuesday #3
GoldwatersSoul Tuesday #4
Cold Warrior Tuesday #5
GoldwatersSoul Tuesday #6
bfox74 Tuesday #7
Cold Warrior Tuesday #8
bfox74 Tuesday #9
Cold Warrior Tuesday #10
bfox74 Tuesday #11
Dumper Tuesday #12
_eek Tuesday #13
Cold Warrior Tuesday #14

Response to Let it go (Original post)

Tue May 14, 2019, 12:37 AM

1. This is an invasion.

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Response to Grumpy Pickle (Reply #1)

Tue May 14, 2019, 02:53 AM

2. It's almost like

some sort of crisis or an emergency of national focus. It's a shame we don't have some way to declare such and start addressing the problem quickly.

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Response to Let it go (Original post)

Tue May 14, 2019, 04:56 AM

3. Great rounding. This guy must post here given his mathematical abilities

65 / 256 = 25.4%

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #3)

Tue May 14, 2019, 08:33 AM

4. Whats the difference???

These are the "families," being caught.

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Response to GoldwatersSoul (Reply #4)

Tue May 14, 2019, 08:47 AM

5. If numbers do not make any difference

Why not fantasise that 100% of the families are fraudulent?

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #5)

Tue May 14, 2019, 09:01 AM

6. The fact that they are "families,"...

Is a way to inject euphemism into the situation. No one wants to destroy families so by transforming the conversation from illegal immigrants to "families seeking asylum " it creates a new metric for Anerican citizens.

The percentage is irrelavent since 100% should not be entering into the US.

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #3)

Tue May 14, 2019, 09:09 AM

7. Read his quote again.

"That means that likely 30% of families coming across the border at any given point are fraudulent..."

It's clear that he's not going after an exact percentage and is accounting for the likelihood that some fraudulent families are not getting caught. So put away your anal retentive bullshit.

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Response to bfox74 (Reply #7)

Tue May 14, 2019, 09:15 AM

8. So he is making a completely unsubstantiated assertion?

It might be “likely” that 50% are fraudulent or that 10% are, given the sample size and the apparent lack of a controlled methodology for sample selection. So why include the numbers if all if he is going to dishonestly represent them? Easy. Shock value.

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #8)

Tue May 14, 2019, 09:20 AM

9. Give it up. You lost this one on several fronts.

He could be rounding to the nearest 10. Maybe he's a statistician and he's factoring in a margin of error. No matter how you look at it, it's clear to the non-anal retentive that he wasn't trying to give us an exact percentage. You're just clinging to what you perceive as an error to avoid the real point of the tweet, and that is that the US is being invaded by people coming here illegally not to seek asylum, but to take American jobs and money and services.

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Response to bfox74 (Reply #9)

Tue May 14, 2019, 09:59 AM

10. No one is saying that he shuld have quoted the exact (25.4%) figure. However,

to round to the nearest 10% is being disingenuous at least. If he is factoring in a margin of error of 5% (given the actual number is 25.4%) then the number could be as low as 20%. Odd he didn't headline it with "20% of all illegal families are fraudulent." I wonder why?

Also I would be interested in his calculation of the MoE on a Bernoulli distribution of that sample size.

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #10)

Tue May 14, 2019, 10:10 AM

11. yawn



I'll pay attention when you're not trying to hijack a thread based upon some unrelated discrepancy.

Now what about those "families" invading the US?

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Response to bfox74 (Reply #11)

Tue May 14, 2019, 11:11 AM

12. Bingo!

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #3)

Tue May 14, 2019, 12:21 PM

13. ok, 20% I'll round Down for you.

Do you have anything to say about a fifth of the families at the border being fraudulent?

Obvious tactic is obvious.

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Response to _eek (Reply #13)

Tue May 14, 2019, 01:38 PM

14. You are a keen enough observer to know I was simply amusing myself

I simply wanted to bring out the Conservatives and their lame justifications for a clearly disingenuous headline. In point of fact, given there was almost certainly no control methodology, the number is relatively meaningless.

As to commenting on the actual tweet, meh. I learned a long, long time ago:

There are two types of problems lurking in this mortal vale of ours — “my problems” and “not my problems.”

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