Politicspoliticspredictiveformulastrumpmassivedefeat

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:44 PM

Trump to lose 2020 election in a landslide defeat, model predicts

Earlier this year there were a ton of good predictive models that showed that trump would win in 2020. Most US POTUS are re=elected unless there is a major economic slowdown. There were a ton of Sanders and Warren supporters who argued that the Democratic Party could nominate a socialist and win. These supporters disagreed with economic models and wanted to go with sanders or Warren. Luckily the party ignored these idiots and nominated an electable candidate.

Prior to trump's complete and utter failure to deal with COVID 18, this model was predicting that trump would win with 55% of the popular vote. The current model shows a very different outcome https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election/donald-trump-lose-election-joe-biden-2020-economy-coronavirus-a9525131.html?fbclid=IwAR1e8H_dZYTldKEUKs6b1_sp_N5EwdnrFh_wwTaMzDarbUD2WvzyapRxZCg

A national election model has predicted that Donald Trump will suffer a “historic defeat” in November’s election due to the coronavirus economic recession.

The model by Oxford Economics uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results to predict the elections outcome.

According to the model, Mr Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35 per cent of the popular vote, according to a report by CNN.

The model has predicted the winner of the popular vote in 16 of the past 18 elections and is a complete reversal of what the model was predicting before the coronavirus outbreak hit the US.

Before the public health crisis, Oxford Economics predicted that Mr Trump would win about 55 per cent of the vote, CNN reported.

“It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favour Trump,” Oxford Economics wrote in the report, according to the broadcaster.

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Reply Trump to lose 2020 election in a landslide defeat, model predicts (Original post)
Letmypeoplevote May 22 OP
Sullivan May 22 #1
Charlie Mike May 22 #4
quad489 May 22 #5
D26-15 May 22 #8
Sullivan May 22 #11
D26-15 May 22 #12
Sullivan May 23 #14
D26-15 May 23 #15
Letmypeoplevote May 24 #23
D26-15 May 24 #28
quad489 May 24 #32
quad489 May 24 #20
Letmypeoplevote May 24 #33
quad489 May 24 #36
Letmypeoplevote Tuesday #44
Letmypeoplevote Tuesday #43
D26-15 Tuesday #45
quad489 May 22 #2
Charlie Mike May 22 #3
Letmypeoplevote May 24 #21
Charlie Mike May 24 #22
Letmypeoplevote May 24 #24
LavenderGirl May 24 #25
Charlie Mike May 24 #26
D26-15 May 24 #29
DP46 May 24 #37
Gunslinger201 May 22 #6
Carlos W Bush May 22 #9
Steelydamned May 22 #7
PrescientWon. May 22 #10
Oldgeezer May 22 #13
PrescientWon. May 23 #16
D26-15 May 24 #30
Badsamm May 23 #17
Valishin May 23 #18
Letmypeoplevote May 23 #19
Carl May 24 #27
D26-15 May 24 #31
Letmypeoplevote May 24 #35
D26-15 May 24 #38
Carl May 24 #39
imwithfred May 24 #34
JohnPoet Sunday #42
Letmypeoplevote May 25 #40
Letmypeoplevote Sunday #41
Letmypeoplevote Tuesday #46

Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:48 PM

1. America has now seen the real Donald Trump and they don't like it at all.

With public sentiment going so low towards Trump it will be much harder for him to pull of his next planned coup.

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Response to Sullivan (Reply #1)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:49 PM

4. You ain't black

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Response to Sullivan (Reply #1)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:50 PM

5. ''and they don't like it at all''...link it up!

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Response to Sullivan (Reply #1)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:58 PM

8. I'm thinking that America loved the great economy Trump had going

before covid19, and I'm thinking they will love it again.

Four more years.

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Response to D26-15 (Reply #8)

Fri May 22, 2020, 08:04 PM

11. You mean Obama's economy.

Fixed it for you.

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Response to Sullivan (Reply #11)

Fri May 22, 2020, 08:06 PM

12. No, Trumps economy...

thanks for playing, sully.

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Response to D26-15 (Reply #12)

Sat May 23, 2020, 12:23 AM

14. Oh it's sure Trump's economy now....

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Response to Sullivan (Reply #14)

Sat May 23, 2020, 12:44 AM

15. Covid 19 had NOTHING to do with that, did it sully.

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Response to D26-15 (Reply #12)

Sun May 24, 2020, 11:23 AM

23. With One Tweet, Obama Takes Credit For The Economy Back From Trump

The real world is a nice place. trump had nothing to do with the economy prior to COVID. trump inherited the Obama economy and then screwed it up by ignoring warning about COVID https://www.politicususa.com/2020/02/17/obama-trump-economy-credit.html

Former President Barack Obama reminded everyone who is really responsible for the current economy with a single tweet marking the anniversary of the Recovery Act.


Trump’s biggest contribution to economic policy was a massive tax cut for the wealthy and corporations that he promised would generate 6% growth, jobs, and pay for itself. None of these things have happened. Growth has slowed, the tax cut has blown a trillion-dollar hole in the deficit, and the wave of good-paying jobs never came. The Trump tax cut had no positive impact on jobs.

Trump’s first three years of job growth are worse than Obama’s, as the economy is slowing under the current president.

The credit for the growth that has been achieved belongs to Barack Obama. Trump hasn’t created the greatest economy in history. He has ridden Obama’s coattails and sabotaged growth with a massive tax cut for the wealthy and corporations that are so toxic that even Republicans won’t campaign on it.

The economy was primed for takeoff when Obama left office, but under Trump, the middle class and poor are being left behind as prosperity is a gated community for the rich only.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #23)

Sun May 24, 2020, 01:26 PM

28. Where is your "real world", Lmpv?

It must be nice in the land of unicorn fart powered economy...

in the mean time, see post #20

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #23)

Sun May 24, 2020, 03:28 PM

32. ''trump had nothing to do with the economy prior to COVID''...that's some serious stupid there OR...

...do you give GWB credit for the 2010-2012 improving economy? Can't have it both ways.........

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Response to Sullivan (Reply #11)

Sun May 24, 2020, 07:32 AM

20. So you credit GWB for Obama's 2010-2012 economy, right???

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Response to quad489 (Reply #20)

Sun May 24, 2020, 03:42 PM

33. PolitifactNo, the economy didn't suddenly get strong under Donald Trump

Facts and fact checking are good things. The silly claim that trump is responsible for an improved economy is really dumb and has been fact checked and this claim was found to be false Trump inherited a great economy from President Obama and then proceeded to destroy the Obama Recovery https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/feb/06/donald-trump/no-economy-didnt-suddenly-get-strong-under-donald-/

However, unlike Obama, who inherited the Great Recession, Trump inherited an economy that was already getting back on its feet. Overall, we found a continuation of the favorable trend lines Trump inherited from Obama.

We looked at 15 common economic statistics, from unemployment rates to growth in gross domestic product to poverty, foreclosures, and bank failures.

They cover the period of the Great Recession until today. Where possible, we’ve highlighted periods under a Republican president in red and periods under a Democratic president in blue.

The bottom line: For virtually each of these measurements, we found that the trend lines continued almost seamlessly from the second half of Obama’s presidency into the first three years of Trump’s tenure. Trump’s claim that he turned around a failing economy is wrong.

"I do not think economic gains have been any faster or better under Trump than gains we would have forecast based on the steady improvements we saw in the economy and job market in President Obama’s second term," said Gary Burtless, an economist with the Brookings Institution.

Also, no president has total control over the factors affecting the economy. Broader trends beyond their powers — from international economic conditions to technological changes — shape the course of the economy as well.
"All our decisions together produce the economy," said Aaron Sojourner, a University of Minnesota economist. "It doesn't change when the resident of the White House does."

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #33)

Sun May 24, 2020, 04:38 PM

36. ''Trump inherited a great economy from President Obama''..why did the DOW jump after Trump won then?

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Response to quad489 (Reply #36)

Tue Jun 2, 2020, 04:34 PM

44. The stock market is NOT the economy

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Response to D26-15 (Reply #8)

Tue Jun 2, 2020, 04:32 PM

43. Big Majority Feels Country Is On Wrong Track

This is bad news for trump https://politicalwire.com/2020/06/02/big-majority-feel-country-is-on-wrong-track/

A new Monmouth poll finds 74% of the American public thinks the country is currently headed on the wrong track.

President Trump’s overall job rating continues on a downward trend with just 42% approving and 54% disapproving.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #43)

Tue Jun 2, 2020, 04:37 PM

45. politicalwire?

Try harder, goth.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:48 PM

2. ''COVID 18''...when in the hell did the US get impacted by that chinese virus???????????????????????

"Prior to trump's complete and utter failure to deal with COVID 18, this model was predicting that trump would win with 55% of the popular vote. The current model shows a very different outcome "

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:48 PM

3. Hillary by a landslide! 98% certainty!

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Response to Charlie Mike (Reply #3)

Sun May 24, 2020, 11:14 AM

21. Meanwhile in the real world, Biden is running ahead of Clinton

Meanwhile in the real world, it is clear tha Joe Biden is running a head of Clinton https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/politics/biden-clinton-polling-analysis/index.html



A new national Fox News poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden with a 48% to 40% lead over President Donald Trump.

The average of all polls taken at least partially this week have Biden up by a 48% to 41% margin.

What's the point: Almost any time I explain that Biden's leading Trump, someone will inevitably bring up "but what
about 2016." That's why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

It's one of the first times during the election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton's 2016 pace in the matchup against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed the national gap quickly with Clinton as he was vanquishing Republican rivals Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential race. Clinton's average lead shrank from 10 points during the first half of April to 6 points in the second half in April to 4 points in the first half in May to a mere 1 point in polls completed four years ago between May 16-May 23.

In terms of individual high quality polls, you needn't look further than Fox News. Clinton trailed Trump by 3 points in a Fox News poll out four years ago between May 16-May 23. Now, Biden's up 8 points in that same poll.

Indeed, Clinton was also down in a high quality live telephone ABC News/Washington Post poll four years ago completed between May 16-May 23.

Biden notably hasn't trailed in a single live interview poll this entire year.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #21)

Sun May 24, 2020, 11:19 AM

22. The real world: DonaldTTrump won and you're guzzling the same shitty, agenda-driven pollsters.

But let's pretend all those illegal votes get admitted and Biden does win.

We don't have to recognize yourccorrupt, racist pedophile as president or obey federal laws.

Stupig lefty said so.

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Response to Charlie Mike (Reply #22)

Sun May 24, 2020, 11:24 AM

24. trump lost by 3 million votes in the real world

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #24)

Sun May 24, 2020, 11:28 AM

25. Just signed on and served jury duty for this post

"personal attack"

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #24)

Sun May 24, 2020, 11:29 AM

26. Then how come Hillary isn't president today, crybaby?

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Response to Charlie Mike (Reply #26)

Sun May 24, 2020, 01:33 PM

29. (((BOOM)))

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #21)

Sun May 24, 2020, 04:48 PM

37. Reality Check! 10 Minutes of Biden lies, fondling girls and gaffes.

When you have a candidate that gains ground the less he talks and loses ground the more they talk to the public, there's something wrong with your strategy and your candidate.

We'll skip over the fact that Biden hasn't hired a single person from the Bernie campaign and the Bernie Bros realize they are getting butt fucked again. Watch for them to sit this one out.

You must be so very proud.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:50 PM

6. Yeah, Good luck with that



Obama/Biden couldn't grow the Economy in 8 years...Trump took it to its highest in less than 3....he can do it again

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Response to Gunslinger201 (Reply #6)

Fri May 22, 2020, 08:01 PM

9. "Obama/Biden couldn't grow the Economy in 8 years"

Huh?

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 07:56 PM

7. Also from "Oxford Economics"......

If Trump beats Clinton, it could wipe as much as $1 trillion from the US economy.

A win for U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump could have grave implications for the world's largest economy, according to Oxford Economics.

If Trump were able to implement all of his proposed policies, that would undermine global economic growth and knock 5 percent off where U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) would otherwise be in 2021, U.K.-based economists Jamie Thompson and Sarah Maxwell said in a note Tuesday. That would erase as much as $1 trillion off the forecast size of the U.S. economy in 2021, Thompson said via email



https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/14/us-economy-could-lose-up-to-5-pct-if-donald-trump-beats-hillary-clinton-in-presidential-election.html

Sounds like their models might be a tad flawed

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 08:03 PM

10. in the REAL WORLD, Biden trails HRC's polling in May of 2016.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Fri May 22, 2020, 08:38 PM

13. Shall we revist your 2015-2016 posts/predictions???

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Response to Oldgeezer (Reply #13)

Sat May 23, 2020, 12:45 AM

16. Bahahahahahaha!

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Response to Oldgeezer (Reply #13)

Sun May 24, 2020, 01:36 PM

30. Another ((((BOOM))))

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Sat May 23, 2020, 01:06 AM

17. COVID model?

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Sat May 23, 2020, 01:47 AM

18. So the under lying theory here

is that even though the rest of world faced just as bad if not worse due to the virus that the blame will be placed on Trump instead of the virus. That's a cute theory if you are under the impression that the US voting populace are a bunch of morons incapable of making the connection or you have some epic information that is going to establish the blame for the virus on Trump. I'll assume you aren't dumb enough to openly make the original assumption and will thus be presenting the later as some not so far off date. We can evaluate that logic once it is presented but do not make the same mistake as 2016 and believe you can make the claim without a logical argument and be taken seriously.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Sat May 23, 2020, 02:11 PM

19. Trump will lose popular vote in 2020, election model predicts

trump lost the popular vote by almost 3 million votes and is trailing Biden by 11%



As a result of the economic suffering from the coronavirus pandemic, a new election model forecasts President Donald Trump will lose the popular vote in November.

"An unemployment rate above its global financial crisis peak, household income nearly 6 percent below its pre-virus levels, and transitory deflation will make the economy a nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November," Oxford Economics said on Wednesday, based on the firm’s state-based and national election models.

Before the coronavirus, Oxford Economics, which has a strong track record of predicting presidential elections, had forecast in the fall that Trump would win 55 percent of the popular vote. In April, as the coronavirus spread in the U.S., the model predicted that Trump would take only 43 percent of the popular vote in the 2020 presidential election, according to The Washington Post.

Trump won the Electoral College in 2016 while Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton took the popular vote by nearly 3 million ballots.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #19)

Sun May 24, 2020, 12:52 PM

27. Even if true so what?

You do know what the popular vote means right?

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Response to Carl (Reply #27)

Sun May 24, 2020, 01:37 PM

31. I really don't think he does.

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Response to Carl (Reply #27)

Sun May 24, 2020, 04:23 PM

35. trump's margin of victory was 100,000 votes in three states

In each of these three states, Stein had more votes that trump's margin of victory. That is not going to happen this cycle. Last cycle, Putin was able to energize sanders supporters to stay home and to depress African American voters. This cycle Sanders is working with the Biden campaign on a host of issues including requiring that Sanders delegates agree to behave


The Sanders campaign is working closely with the Biden campaign on this and some other issues

Last cycle, Putin and Russia worked to suppress the turnout of African American voters


Those tactics will not work this cycle. I am hoping that Joe selects Senator Harris as his running mate

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #35)

Sun May 24, 2020, 05:24 PM

38. "trump's margin of victory was 100,000 votes in three states."

And that's all it took. Who is yo' President, Lmpv?

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Reply #35)

Sun May 24, 2020, 08:31 PM

39. Get a civics book and look up Electoral College.

The founders saw the modern left coming at some point.





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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Sun May 24, 2020, 04:19 PM

34. I can't find the comment I juried on, but anyway,

the rules forbid posting nonsense, so I had to vote violation, hide.

It's always good for one to think before posting.

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Response to imwithfred (Reply #34)


Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Mon May 25, 2020, 09:54 AM

40. Joe Biden is ahead of Clinton in the polls due to increase support of white voters

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Sun May 31, 2020, 10:42 PM

41. Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began

The real world is a nice place where facts matter. Most POTUS are re-elected unless they are bad. Most challengers are behind the incumbent at this point. Here trump's utter incompetence has changed things.



A new ABC News/Washington Post poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden clearly ahead of President Donald Trump. Biden's up by a 53% to 43% margin among registered voters in this survey.

But it's important to put individual polls into context, and that context continues to show Biden's in one of the best positions for any challenger since scientific polling began in the 1930s.

There were more than 40 national public polls taken at least partially in the month of May that asked about the Biden-Trump matchup. Biden led in every single one of them. He's the first challenger to be ahead of the incumbent in every May poll since Jimmy Carter did so in 1976. Carter, of course, won the 1976 election. Biden's the only challenger to have the advantage in every May poll over an elected incumbent in the polling era.

Biden remains the lone challenger to be up in the average of polls in every single month of the election year. His average lead in a monthly average of polls has never dipped below 4 points and has usually been above it.

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Response to Letmypeoplevote (Original post)

Tue Jun 2, 2020, 04:39 PM

46. Trumps Re-Election Chances Are Dwindling

Normally one has to be a really bad POTUS or to have some really bad luck to not be re-elected. trump's incompetence and racism are so bad that trump is on track to be one of the few POTUS not to be re-elected.. trump's approval ratings right now are consistent with the approval ratings for the last two POTUS who were not re-elected. https://politicalwire.com/2020/06/02/trumps-re-election-chances-are-dwindling/

“After a month of bad news, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have taken another hit. He’s in serious trouble for re-election.”

“Most of the damage is on the disapproval side. On May 1, Trump was at 43.3% approval and 50.7% disapproval, according to the estimate at FiveThirtyEight, which is based on an adjusted average of all the polls out there. Now? Although his approval is down just a bit, to 42.9%, his disapproval is up another three percentage points and sits at 53.6%. Two months ago, Trump was getting his best approval numbers since his brief honeymoon; now, he’s lost all of that and is back to where he’s been for most of the past two years.”

“As was the case last month, that means that his numbers resemble those of the last two elected presidents to be defeated for a second term, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter. He’s solidly behind Barack Obama and George W. Bush, both of whom won re-election in reasonably contested efforts, and far behind landslide winners Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.”

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