Sciencescience

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:27 PM

Satellite Data Shows 2015 Wasn’t Even Close To Being The Hottest Year On Record

Satellite temperature data measuring Earth’s lower atmosphere shows that 2015 only ranks as the third-warmest year on record, and not the warmest year as predicted by scientists relying on weather station data.

Climate scientists with the University of Alabama, Huntsville reported Tuesday the temperature anomaly for December 2015 was 0.44 degrees Celsius above the 1981 to 2010 average, fueled by an El Nino warming event. UAH scientist Dr. Roy Spencer posted on his blog that this “makes 2015 the third warmest year globally (+0.27 deg C) in the satellite record (since 1979).”

Spencer noted 1998 was still the warmest year on record, but added that since “2016 should be warmer than 2015 with the current El Nino, there is a good chance 2016 will end up as a record warm year…it all depends upon how quickly El Nino wanes later in the year.”

UAH satellite data comes after scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported “year-to-date temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.57°F (0.87°C) above the 20th century average” which is “the highest for January–November in the 1880–2015 record.”

Full article here:

http://dailycaller.com/2016/01/06/satellite-data-shows-2015-wasnt-even-close-to-being-the-hottest-year-on-record/

48 replies, 1938 views

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Arrow 48 replies Author Time Post
Reply Satellite Data Shows 2015 Wasn’t Even Close To Being The Hottest Year On Record (Original post)
Doctor_R Jan 2016 OP
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #1
Billy Jingo Jan 2016 #2
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #5
EagleKeeper Jan 2016 #3
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #4
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #6
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #11
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #14
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #20
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #22
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #25
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #8
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #7
EagleKeeper Jan 2016 #9
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #10
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #12
EagleKeeper Jan 2016 #13
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #15
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #16
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #17
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #19
EagleKeeper Jan 2016 #21
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #23
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #24
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #26
EagleKeeper Jan 2016 #27
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #28
BuzzClik Jan 2016 #29
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #30
MeatSandwich Jan 2016 #31
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #32
EagleKeeper Jan 2016 #18
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #33
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #34
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #35
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #36
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #37
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #38
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #39
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #40
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #41
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #42
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #43
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #44
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #45
Doctor_R Jan 2016 #46
maximumbrainusage Jan 2016 #47
rumnrockets Jan 2016 #48

Response to Doctor_R (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:34 PM

1. Out of the roughly 20,000 or so scientists worlwide

whose primary field of study is climate research, practically none of them other than Dr. Roy Spencer himself, use Spencer's data set.

He's really an "Army of One" on this.

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Response to rumnrockets (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:37 PM

2. So you are saying that even the denier says it's fucking hot?

<OPE>

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Response to Billy Jingo (Reply #2)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:45 PM

5. Pretty much.

Spencer is very much aware of how greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, influence the temperature. He's appropriately guarded in his comments to other scientists. But he has a whole other way of speaking to lay audiences.

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Response to rumnrockets (Reply #1)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:37 PM

3. Who cares who says it...isn't the satellite data enough?

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Response to EagleKeeper (Reply #3)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:41 PM

4. Spencer starts with the NASA data set and "corrects" it

for what he believes are instrument errors. His "corrections" are not accepted by very many other scientists in the field.

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Response to rumnrockets (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:47 PM

6. NASA and NOAA

"correct" their own data.

What's the big deal?

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #6)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:58 PM

11. It's not a big deal.

Spencer has published papers on remote sensing and instrument errors for years. His work has been beneficial. But in the narrow field of instrumentation where he works, his work has been properly scrutinized by other experts, as it should be. In the end, his more aggressive corrections have been contested and not accepted by the majority of others in his field.

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Response to rumnrockets (Reply #11)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:02 PM

14. "...remote sensing and instrument errors..."

It all depends on the direction of the errors I guess.

If the error is in your favor. no big deal.

If the error goes against you, it either needs "adjusted," or discounted.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #14)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:13 PM

20. For what it's worth, I'm an instrument engineer.

I read some of Spencer's papers and followed the discussions around them 10 years ago, or so.

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Response to rumnrockets (Reply #20)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:19 PM

22. Good!

Last edited Wed Jan 6, 2016, 09:06 PM - Edit history (1)

Then you know what I mean when I say it depends on which side of the line the error falls.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #22)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:25 PM

25. Ancient instrument proverb:

"A man with 1 watch always knows what time it is. A man with 2 watches never knows."

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Response to rumnrockets (Reply #4)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:52 PM

8. +1

Spencer and Christy have been shredded multiple times for playing fast and loose with the data.

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Response to Doctor_R (Original post)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:50 PM

7. "Third warmest year on record" is pretty close to number one.

And, now that we've heard from the climate skeptics at Huntsville, let's wait for those who don't see everything through the same lens...

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:53 PM

9. Heh...

And, now that we've heard from the climate skeptics at Huntsville, let's wait for those who don't see everything through the same lens...

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #7)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:56 PM

10. So, that "97% of scientists"

lied to you and you're okay with that?

After all, it's "pretty close."

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #10)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 06:58 PM

12. Please link where the final analysis of the satellite data was announced by the "97% of scientists."

Just wanna make sure you aren't spouting bullshit before we continue.

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #12)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:00 PM

13. So...you want to wait until someone smooths the data?

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #12)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:03 PM

15. I'm not the one

"adjusting" data points.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #15)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:05 PM

16. Ok. So your comment was, indeed, bullshit.

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #16)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:07 PM

17. I guess that's

your opinion, and you are certainly entitled to it.

Don't let anyone ever tell you differently.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #17)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:10 PM

19. You told me that 97% of scientists said that 2015 was the hottest on record.

If you cannot back it up, then you made it up, and that's the definition of bullshit.

You can tell me differently simply by posting a link supporting your claim.

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #19)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:20 PM

23. So, you don't

believe 97% of scientists either?

Maybe there's hope for you!

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #24)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:26 PM

26. Google is your friend, but he sure hosed you in this instance.

Not one of the hits on the front page was from December or later. How could anyone declare 2015 the hottest without December data?

Just stop. You don't have the data because it doesn't exist yet.

Have the last word. I need to go wash the bullshit off my hipwaders.

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #26)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:28 PM

27. Bye Buzz

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #26)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:29 PM

28. "How could anyone declare 2015 the hottest without December data?"

LOL

Don't ask me.

I didn't make those predictions.

Ask the people who made them.

Maybe they "adjusted" the data before they even collected it?

Sounds about right to me.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #28)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:38 PM

29. read you google links, bubba. it's all explained there...

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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #29)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:43 PM

30. Sure is!

This is from August:

Climate change: 2015 will be the hottest year on record 'by a mile', experts say

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-2015-will-be-the-hottest-year-on-record-by-a-mile-experts-say-10477138.html


How can you make a prediction like that FOUR MONTHS before all of the data has been adjusted?

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #30)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:23 AM

31. But, but, but ... 97% of scientists agree, and that *all* you need to know, knuckledragger.

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Response to MeatSandwich (Reply #31)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 12:28 AM

32. Well, 100% of that

97% can "kiss my grits!"

LOL



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Response to BuzzClik (Reply #16)

Wed Jan 6, 2016, 07:09 PM

18. How so?

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Response to Doctor_R (Original post)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:57 AM

33. Poor doctor R

I wonder how shocked he would be if he knew that those satellites don't actually measure surface temperature. Or temperature at all.

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #33)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:06 AM

34. NASA and NOAA

measure surface temperature, then those temperatures get "adjusted" to fit the agenda.

Why?

Why do temperature readings need adjusted, other than to be force-fit into their little box where they are expected to be?

If they don't fit into the box, they either get a bigger box or they change the data to fit into the original box.

Poor minimumbrainusage...

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #34)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:13 AM

35. poor poor "dr" r

Here's what you said

"Why do temperature readings need adjusted, other than to be force-fit into their little box where they are expected to be? "

Now, your piece you pasted from the daily caller cited Roy Spencer as an authority. And here you are complaining about adjustments! Now, not only do satellites not even measure temperature (look it up if you don't believe me), here's Spencer discussing the adjustments HE makes in the satellite data you take to be the most accurate


http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/04/version-6-0-of-the-uah-temperature-dataset-released-new-lt-trend-0-11-cdecade/


One might ask, Why do the satellite data have to be adjusted at all? If we had satellite instruments that (1) had rock-stable calibration, (2) lasted for many decades without any channel failures, and (3) were carried on satellites whose orbits did not change over time, then the satellite data could be processed without adjustment. But none of these things are true. Since 1979 we have had 15 satellites that lasted various lengths of time, having slightly different calibration (requiring intercalibration between satellites), some of which drifted in their calibration, slightly different channel frequencies (and thus weighting functions), and generally on satellite platforms whose orbits drift and thus observe at somewhat different local times of day in different years. All data adjustments required to correct for these changes involve decisions regarding methodology, and different methodologies will lead to somewhat different results. This is the unavoidable situation when dealing with less than perfect data.

I bolded the easier to understand sentences for ya.

Now, why don't you actually get informed about the topic so you can discuss all this meaningfully.

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #35)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:24 AM

36. If nasa and noaa didn't make

"adjustments," none of their predictions would come true.

Oh wait, none of their predictions have come true anyway!

Computer models are as worthless as the people who program them.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #36)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:35 AM

37. Your headline, buddy

'Satellite Data Shows 2015 Wasn’t Even Close To Being The Hottest Year On Record'

Now, I know you can't possibly respond to what I've been typing, as that would involve actually having knowledge about this topic, but-

Don't you feel a bit funny trumpeting satellite data that

-Doesn't even measure temperature

-And is itself adjusted, as the link to Dr Spencer's site demonstrates in black and white?

I mean, a non-trolling person would recognize the blatant contradiction there and at least pause for a moment.


'Computer models are as worthless as the people who program them. '

You know what that really sounds like? Resentment towards people who are better educated than you. Ironically enough, typed on a computer. I suppose you think jesus invented the computer and a bunch of commie brainiacs stole the credit?

haha

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #37)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:43 AM

38. "I suppose..."

There's your problem right there.

You shouldn't make suppositions.

Almost makes it look like you have no proof.

LOL

Get it?

"haha."

That's a joke using your words!

Get it?

I doubt it.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #38)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:47 AM

39. Science doesn't deal with proof

Once again, your complete lack of knowledge in this area- and I do mean COMPLETE- is amply demonstrated.

Mathematics (some branches) deals with proof.

It's not too late to educate yourself . It would take a monumental effort, however.


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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #39)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 02:54 AM

40. Ya know something?

The only reason I even bother engaging in any type of "discussion" with you is to give you an opportunity to out yourself as a very bitter and "holier-than-thou" person.

You haven't disappointed me yet.

Not one time.

Just make sure you don't knock your nose into the ceiling.

Wouldn't want you to hurt yourself.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #40)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:01 AM

41. awww, you need a safe space, 'doc'?

You posted a hack piece from a hack site. Which would be fine, but this is the S C I E N C E section.

And you screeched about ADJUSTMENTS TO DATA.

All the while not realizing that satellite data is adjusted too. Whoops. That's not very brilliant is it?

Instead of thanking me for showing you the error of your ways, you whine and complain.

haha

Maybe go back to reading Mad magazine, I think adult science is a bit beyond you.

.

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #41)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:06 AM

42. You never

disappoint.

Not once.

EVER.

You're batting 1.000!

I would hate to see you ruin your perfect record.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #42)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:07 AM

43. I would love to see you become better informed

So you could participate in a real debate, and also stop embarrassing yourself.

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #43)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:11 AM

44. Ya know what I would like to see?

An HONEST discussion without all of the name-calling and belittling of people who have a different opinion than you do.

Grow up.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #44)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 03:16 AM

45. Bullshit

When I came to this site, I posted some scientific studies.

I didn't get reasoned rebuttals.

What I got were memes and "GLOBULL CHURCH OF WARMING!".

You are so disingenuous. You're not fooling anyone.

And, you know what? Your opinion regarding science is only worthwhile to the degree that you are actually informed (and well-reasoned). I'm sorry you want a SAFE SPACE where all opinions are valid, but science doesn't work like that. Try the political section or something. You're not going to be coddled here when you make ridiculous and wrong statements.

So, save your whining bs for someone else. This is your idea of scientific debate-

http://www.discussionist.com/?com=view_post&forum=1018&pid=14630

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #45)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:22 AM

46. Is that post directed at

another poster here?

Nope.

Bye.

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Response to Doctor_R (Reply #46)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 10:49 AM

47. At least you learned some things about science

For one thing Dr Spencer's satellite data is ADJUSTED.

You're welcome.

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Response to maximumbrainusage (Reply #39)

Thu Jan 7, 2016, 01:06 PM

48. Excellent point.

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