Sciencescience

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:30 PM

Tipping points and Hothouse Earth

Hothouse Earth is an apocalyptic nightmare where the global average temperatures is 4 to 5 degrees Celsius higher (with regions like the Arctic averaging 10 degrees C higher) than today, according to the study, “Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene,” published Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Sea levels would eventually be 10-60 meters higher as much of the world’s ice melts. In these conditions, large parts of the Earth would be uninhabitable.
...

If global warming reaches 2 degrees C it could trigger a feedback, or “tipping element,” in one or more of our natural systems and drive further warming, Rockström told Motherboard. To put that into perspective, the recent heat waves and wildfires are being linked to climate change that has raised the global average temperature 1 degree C.

Permafrost thaw is one the 10 feedbacks studied in the paper. Permafrost exists in nearly a quarter of the land area of the northern hemisphere. Should large areas thaw, they would release huge amounts of carbon and methane, increasing warming.

Other feedbacks include Amazon rainforest and boreal forest dieback (when an entire forest suddenly dies from drought or some other cause), the reduction of northern hemisphere snow cover, Antarctic sea ice and polar ice sheets, and loss of Arctic summer sea ice.

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominoes. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another,” said Rockström. It’s near impossible to stop this once it starts, he said, and the next thing you know we’re on the path to a Hothouse Earth.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/8xbdnk/planet-at-risk-of-heading-towards-hothouse-earth?utm_campaign=sharebutton

If we keep burning carbon at our present rate we'll blow right past 2 degrees C within 10 years. I never thought I'd live to see it, but here we are.

48 replies, 1192 views

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Arrow 48 replies Author Time Post
Reply Tipping points and Hothouse Earth (Original post)
orson Aug 2018 OP
oflguy Aug 2018 #1
Shkreli Aug 2018 #4
quad489 Aug 2018 #2
oflguy Aug 2018 #7
quad489 Aug 2018 #10
oflguy Aug 2018 #11
marmot84 Aug 2018 #28
quad489 Aug 2018 #31
marmot84 Aug 2018 #32
quad489 Aug 2018 #33
oflguy Aug 2018 #44
Shkreli Aug 2018 #3
marmot84 Aug 2018 #29
quad489 Aug 2018 #34
marmot84 Aug 2018 #36
quad489 Aug 2018 #37
SatansSon666 Aug 2018 #39
oflguy Aug 2018 #41
SatansSon666 Aug 2018 #45
oflguy Aug 2018 #46
SatansSon666 Aug 2018 #47
marmot84 Aug 2018 #40
oflguy Aug 2018 #38
quad489 Aug 2018 #48
Jack Burton Aug 2018 #5
foia Aug 2018 #14
Jack Burton Aug 2018 #17
orson Aug 2018 #20
oflguy Aug 2018 #21
orson Aug 2018 #22
oflguy Aug 2018 #26
Jack Burton Aug 2018 #25
oflguy Aug 2018 #27
marmot84 Aug 2018 #30
quad489 Aug 2018 #35
Solesurvivor Aug 2018 #6
oflguy Aug 2018 #8
Jack Burton Aug 2018 #9
nolidad Aug 2018 #12
Meowmenow Aug 2018 #13
Jack Burton Aug 2018 #15
foia Aug 2018 #16
CokeMachine1 Aug 2018 #18
oflguy Aug 2018 #42
nolens volens Aug 2018 #19
Cold Warrior Aug 2018 #23
nolens volens Aug 2018 #24
oflguy Aug 2018 #43

Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:34 PM

1. We're all going to die

Better get out your checkbooks and pay a liberal to save us.

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Response to oflguy (Reply #1)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:38 PM

4. Stealing this.

 

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:36 PM

2. What's it like living off the grid in your totally energy self-sufficient home & electric car??

"If we keep burning carbon at our present rate we'll blow right past 2 degrees C within 10 years. I never thought I'd live to see it, but here we are."

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Response to quad489 (Reply #2)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:53 PM

7. You are not giving enough money to socialist countries

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Response to oflguy (Reply #7)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:58 PM

10. Why would any socialist utopian country need my money?

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Response to quad489 (Reply #10)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:01 PM

11. Because greed and ambition has to be punished

Capitalism must be destroyed

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Response to quad489 (Reply #2)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 03:29 PM

28. That is an ridiculus mistake

to assume that because some is aware of the problem and knows that change for all of society is necessary that then they suddenly have the responsiblity to completely stop using fossil fuels which you obviously know is impossible.

There are solutions and it doesn't involve this. We have to move away from fossil fuels. That doesn't mean that everyone needs to instantly stop using them. Wedge stratagies that could work could be adopted. In fact some were in place before that ignorant orange clown was elected president.

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #28)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 04:33 PM

31. It's called practicing what you preach. If you are out there preaching about some tipping point and

you are not doing everything you can to minimize your, and your family's, contribution to the problem, then you are nothing but a flaming hypocrite.

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Response to quad489 (Reply #31)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 07:30 PM

32. Yeah well in my opinion

it now doesn't matter what we do. We could have made needed changes perhaps 20 years ago without having to do heroic measures but now, even with heroic measures 4C of warming is now built into the climate system. Also 2 meters of sea level rise by the end the century.

No, just because you accept the science of climate change - that doesn't mean that you have to live in a cave. Your position an extremist position intended to attack the messenger because, well, I don't really know what your motives are other than to continue to sustain your false world view.

It's called denial:

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #32)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 09:21 PM

33. ''that doesn't mean that you have to live in a cave''...where the hell did you get that claim from??

Practicing what you preach is being like Ed Begley Jr....you do know who he is, right?

"even with heroic measures 4C of warming is now built into the climate system. Also 2 meters of sea level rise by the end the century."...and where is your source for those claims?

"I don't really know what your motives are other than to continue to sustain your false world view."...uh, it is to get to the truth. And the truth being that if the climate situation is so dire, then why the hell are the world's biggest polluters, China & India, exempt from complying to those paris accords co2 etc reductions for another decade or two?

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #32)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 11:43 PM

44. Is that why you are all talk and no action, marmot?

because it is too late?

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:38 PM

3. Jaysus H Christ, you need a drink. Termites worldwide contribute 5X more CO2 to the atmosphere

 

than humans.

Fucking TERMITES.

Hitch up your skirt Alice.

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Response to Shkreli (Reply #3)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 03:31 PM

29. Learn what how the science

of the carbon cycle works. Hint, CO2 in our atmosphere is increasing dramatically BECAUSE OF HUMANS.

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #29)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 09:35 PM

34. ''CO2 in our atmosphere is increasing dramatically BECAUSE OF HUMANS''...what co2 ppm level is OK???

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Response to quad489 (Reply #34)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 08:51 AM

36. 350 ppm

but we have risen to 410 and are going to hit 450+ almost certaintly. The international decision is to try and limit CO2 to 450 ppm which should (by most scientific models) keep total warming below 2 degrees Celius. 350 ppm would be safer but we'd have to make major changes beyond anything on the table to reach that.

If you follow and understand CO2 then you would be interested in the Keeling curve which charts CO2 concentration in the atmosphere since 1958.



CO2 is now measured at various sites around the world. Further we have direct evidence through isotopic analysis that it is the result of human use of fossile fuels.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve

Then also learn about the CO2 cycle

https://www.skepticalscience.com/human-co2-smaller-than-natural-emissions-intermediate.htm

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #36)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 08:57 AM

37. If 350 ppm is safe, why are the gas cooktops & ovens allowed to emit up to 800 ppm? Your residential

gas furnace & water heater can emit up to 400 ppm and still pass all govt safety regulations.........

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Response to quad489 (Reply #37)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 03:47 PM

39. Probably for the same reason

Car exhaust emits about 1000 ppm of CO with a catalytic converter but exposure to a concentration of 800 ppm CO can kill you within a couple of hours. How can we all still be alive?

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Response to SatansSon666 (Reply #39)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 10:39 PM

41. I hate to be the one to have to inform you but

Breathing CO and CO2 are two entirely different issues

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Response to oflguy (Reply #41)

Fri Aug 10, 2018, 04:04 AM

45. I know that.

My answer makes sense in response to his.

Since you brought it up, what makes CO and CO2 different in toxicity?

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Response to SatansSon666 (Reply #45)

Fri Aug 10, 2018, 04:14 AM

46. I'm not playing your stupid games

The forum is laughing at you

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Response to oflguy (Reply #46)

Fri Aug 10, 2018, 04:24 AM

47. Sure it is buddy.

It should be easy for you to explain to me how my answer to his question doesn't make sense.
Then it should be easy for you to explain why your reply to mine does make sense.

Like really. Even though nobody compared CO and CO2 and the topic was how come certain ppm are allowed to be emitted if the levels are dangerous, you tell me something I already knew and pretend to 'break it to me".

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Response to quad489 (Reply #37)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 06:24 PM

40. Because "safe to breath" and "safe for the climate system" are very different things

These are not comparable at all.

In the ISS (International Space Station) the CO2 level often rises well above 2000 ppm.

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #36)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 02:30 PM

38. This is good news for plants

Last edited Thu Aug 9, 2018, 10:48 PM - Edit history (1)

and the rainforests

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Response to oflguy (Reply #38)

Fri Aug 10, 2018, 06:50 AM

48. Yep, you'd think all these ''smart'' people would be pushing for more plants/trees be planted...

...and the deforestation of the rainforest be stopped. But no.....the solution is always tax the wealthy more, enrich the ones "saving the Earth", and use any leftover monies to give FREE stuff to the lazy low IQ/EQ victim mentality crowd who eagerly votes for more FREE stuff.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:44 PM

5. DOOM DOOM DOOM

'We only have 10-20 years to fix this."

I love how the doomertists always put the point of no return about 20 years out. Close enough to scare people and get government grant money. Far enough out that nobody will hold them accountable for being wrong or the will already be retired.

GLOBAL WARMING IS A HOAX

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Response to Jack Burton (Reply #5)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:37 PM

14. Exactly.

Case in point: They've already forgotten all of the doom and gloom predicted in the 90s.

How many "tipping points" have we supposedly eclipsed since then?

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Response to foia (Reply #14)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:42 PM

17. Someone ought to do a study

correlating predicted tipping points to timeline for grant money submissions.

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Response to Jack Burton (Reply #5)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 03:01 PM

20. The point of no return is probably behind us

That's kind of what the OP is about.

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Response to orson (Reply #20)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 03:10 PM

21. Good point orson

So just give it up

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Response to oflguy (Reply #21)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 03:14 PM

22. I would

but I don't want you to be able to say 'Nobody told me'.

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Response to orson (Reply #22)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 07:48 PM

26. No danger of that

You have been here preaching doom and gloom the whole time I've used the forum.

I bet you are a riot at parties.

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Response to orson (Reply #20)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 04:54 PM

25. The article linked in the OP says otherwise.

"We only have 10-20 years to fix this."
"What we do in the next 10-20 years will determine whether our planet remains hospitable to human life or slides down an irreversible path to what scientists in a major new study call “Hothouse Earth” conditions."

Still plenty of time to get in on the NGO grant money action.

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Response to Jack Burton (Reply #25)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 07:50 PM

27. We only had 10 years left 20 years ago

must be the new math

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Response to Jack Burton (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 03:32 PM

30. We probably did. Now it is likely too late.

California burns and you will ignore the reason forever...

?width=534&height=401&fit=crop

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Response to Jack Burton (Reply #5)

Wed Aug 8, 2018, 09:37 PM

35. If the problem was so critical, why are the 2 biggest polluters (China & India) exempt for decades

from complying with the paris accords reduction demands?

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:49 PM

6. Do what you need to do but don't tax me or take away my liberty to do it.

You really need to go after China and India because they are the problems not the US

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Response to Solesurvivor (Reply #6)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:55 PM

8. But

taxing you and taking away your liberty is the whole point.

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Response to Solesurvivor (Reply #6)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 12:55 PM

9. Lefty has a final solution for climate deniers.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:08 PM

12. Well as China produces nearly twice the carbon we do:

When they are reigned in then let us talk about America.

Also when the AGW paranoids give up plastics, cosmetics, cars, electricity thyat is not 100% non carbon then come talk to us!

Otherwise we shall see what mutations and natural selection will bring about in that brave new world!!!!


Adapt or die is the law of the secularist.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:28 PM

13. DERP! But socialists!!!!!

 

We are all proud of shitting in our nest! 'Merica! USA! Number 1!

Mommy why do I hafta clean my room? Johnny isn't cleaning his!!! WHAAAAHHHH!!!!

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Response to Meowmenow (Reply #13)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:38 PM

15. 97% of doomertists are socialists

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Response to Meowmenow (Reply #13)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 01:40 PM

16. That's all you've got?

Not even a cartoon?

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Response to Meowmenow (Reply #13)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 02:02 PM

18. "We are all proud of shitting in our nest!"

 

Maybe you and your 'we' should learn to use the toilet or double up on the depends?



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Response to Meowmenow (Reply #13)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 10:45 PM

42. But we are cleaning our own room

So why aren't you whining about the ones that refuse to clean theirs?

Oops, I almost forgot.......because they are communist comrades.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 02:29 PM

19. Due to the lack

of a meteor event the earth decided it needed humans to be the next planet killer...we are the apex predator and apex virus that destroys everything under us and then destroys ourselves. Once we are gone the planet can start again with whatever the next series of lifeforms will be...

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Response to nolens volens (Reply #19)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 03:25 PM

23. Probably true. One hopes that the next dominant life form can appreciate the beauty of Keats

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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #23)

Tue Aug 7, 2018, 03:30 PM

24. If they find

it in the archaeological records I'm sure they'll be amazed that we had that and Hustler as a part of our civilization.

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Response to nolens volens (Reply #19)

Thu Aug 9, 2018, 10:46 PM

43. There ya go, volens

Problem solved.

"Know ya damn role"

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