Sciencescience

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:02 AM

The effect of average seasonal temperatures on the growth rate of U.S. output.

Abstract
We document that seasonal temperatures have significant and systematic effects on the U.S. economy, both at the aggregate level and across a wide cross section of economic sectors. This effect is particularly strong for the summer: a 1F increase in the average summer temperature is associated with a reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output of 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points. We combine our estimates with projected increases in seasonal temperatures and find that rising temperatures could reduce U.S. economic growth by up to one‐third over the next century.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jmcb.12574#pq=3gnELk

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:12 AM

1. WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE

How would you ever measure .15 degrees when we round off all measurements to whole numbers?

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:16 AM

2. Could, might, maybe, suggests:

All factors based on computers and Al-Gore-ithms that may or may not have any basis in future reality. It doesn't factor in so many variables and nations abilities to adapt and adjust.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:18 AM

3. That seems at odds with where I work

When we get snow storms that impact traffic in the morning or evening, we shut down and very little work gets done. Officially everyone is "working from home". I receive very few emails in my inbox on days when everyone is working from home.

I know, anecdotal.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:33 AM

6. If the abstract is true

the trend should show up in a comparison of productivity in metro areas like Phoenix and Milwaukee.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #3)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 01:08 PM

14. I know someone that used to work in a highly technical business

After Hurricane Katrina, his home office up north told him they wanted to relocate his office up north because they lost so many business days in the recovery from the storm.

My friend asked his boss, "How many business days a year do you lose up north due to ice and snow storms?"

It was a "gotcha" moment.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:23 AM

4. So you're a global cooling fan now, eh?

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:27 AM

5. At what temperature would the growth rate of U.S. output be maximum?

That's the temperature we should engineer the planet for.

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Response to Troll2 (Reply #5)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:37 AM

7. He has no idea

unless the UN tells him

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 09:44 AM

8. Um

"In our empirical analysis, an increase in the average summer temperature decreases the annual growth rate of labor productivity, while an increase in the average fall temperature has the opposite effect."

Does that include people that work in air conditioning? Does that logic include the additional workers that will have to maintain air conditioners that break down more often in the .25 degree warmer heat?

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Response to oflguy (Reply #8)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:44 AM

9. Seems odd that the biggest impact is on "Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate" sector?

I'd think that would be one of the most air conditioned, office-bound sectors of the economy and largely unaffected by climate.

And if warmer weather is bad for growth, why has there been a massive movement of economic activity from the northern states to the sunbelt over the last century? Other factors must be more important.

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Response to Troll2 (Reply #9)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:49 AM

11. I wonder if these people know that the majority of crops grow better (if at all)

Last edited Wed Dec 5, 2018, 11:25 AM - Edit history (1)

in warmer climates?

maybe not

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:48 AM

10. We are below average

Could you explain that to those of us who don't understand Globull warming?

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 10:53 AM

12. Electing another marxist like Obama will have a far greater negative

reduction in the annual growth rate of state‐level output than the 0.15 to 0.25 percentage points cited in this article.

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Response to Jack Burton (Reply #12)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 03:42 PM

15. Republicans break the econmy

Democrats fix it. You can look it up.

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Response to orson (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 03:45 PM

16. The opposite is true.

Dems screw the economy. but because the economy is so huge and complex- it takes time to mess it up into recession. Usually after the Dem is booted from POTUS and a conservative is oput in to fix the mess.

We are seeing that now in the looming recession. All due to progressive policies from Obama and his global like minded minions.

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Response to orson (Reply #15)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 06:57 PM

17. The housing debacle was democrat-induced

little fella

Democrats refused to reel in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and Obama was among the lawyers suing banks and other lending institutions to make loans to people that could not afford to repay them.

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Response to orson (Original post)

Wed Dec 5, 2018, 11:24 AM

13. Gee, we must have just entered an ice age then

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