Sciencescience

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 07:04 AM

Aggregated knowledge from a small number of debates outperforms the wisdom of large crowds

Last edited Thu Dec 20, 2018, 08:32 AM - Edit history (1)

The aggregation of many independent estimates can outperform the most accurate individual judgment. This centenarian finding, popularly known as the wisdom of crowds, has been applied to problems ranging from the diagnosis of cancer to financial forecasting. It is widely believed that social influence undermines collective wisdom by reducing the diversity of opinions within the crowd. Here, we show that if a large crowd is structured in small independent groups, deliberation and social influence within groups improve the crowd's collective accuracy. We asked a live crowd (N=5180) to respond to general-knowledge questions (e.g., what is the height of the Eiffel Tower?). Participants first answered individually, then deliberated and made consensus decisions in groups of five, and finally provided revised individual estimates. We found that averaging consensus decisions was substantially more accurate than aggregating the initial independent opinions. Remarkably, combining as few as four consensus choices outperformed the wisdom of thousands of individuals.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.00045##

Not too surprising. I think that for groups of size N>10, the expected IQ = N / log N. For example, the Senate has N=100 and an IQ of 50.

For groups of size 2 to 10, the IQ depends strongly on the composition of the group. But even if the individual IQ is 100, the group IQ is above 100, and probably peaks for groups of 5 or 6. In other words, a petite jury of 6 is about the maximum expected IQ. A full jury panel of 12 has an expected IQ of just less than 100, but this may be enhanced by the jury selection process.

Edit -- Sorry, the correct formula is IQ = 100 / log N.

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Response to Troll2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 07:11 AM

1. An old saying: " The intelligence quotient of any mob can be figured by dividing the IQ of the...

... stupidest member of the mob by the number of people involved."...

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Response to Troll2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 07:18 AM

2. maybe the senate can be modeled by an abeline paradox .......

with each senator agreeing to bad policy because they think that is what the others want?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abilene_paradox

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Response to rampartb (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 07:29 AM

3. That's probably how a lot of the sanctions legislation gets passed.

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Response to Troll2 (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 07:38 AM

4. i was thinking about the "resolution to use military force"

but the various sanctions probably fit.

the washington echo chamber, perfectly sized and populated for resonant group think is no way to govern a republic.

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Response to Troll2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 08:03 AM

5. Interesting...and what ''expected IQ'' does your formula give for the US House of Representatives?

"Not too surprising. I think that for groups of size N>10, the expected IQ = N / log N. For example, the Senate has N=100 and an IQ of 50."

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Response to quad489 (Reply #5)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 08:34 AM

6. OOPS! I got the formula wrong. It should be IQ equals 100 / log N

So the House of Representatives with 435 members would have an IQ of 100 / log 435 = 38.

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Response to Troll2 (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 06:12 PM

8. That sounds about right, especially after dipshit Pelosi takes over and appoints her fellow morons..

"So the House of Representatives with 435 members would have an IQ of 100 / log 435 = 38."

..to leadership positions they can barely pronounce the title let alone effectively perform the duties of.

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Response to Troll2 (Original post)

Thu Dec 20, 2018, 10:36 AM

7. It never ceases to amaze me when they "ask the audience" in Who Wants to be a Millionaire

how many people get the answer wrong, even though they don't have to vote.

So which crowd was the wiser? The people that chopped off the heads of the nobles in France during the French Revolution, or the ones that subsequently chopped off the heads of the head choppers?

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