Sciencescience

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 12:04 PM

Above-Normal Hurricane Season Now More Likely With El Nios end, NOAA says


The agency predicts five to nine hurricanes this season, two to four of them at the level of Category 3 or higher.

By Kavitha Surana

There’s an increased likelihood that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be above-normal now that the irregular weather pattern known as El Niño has faded, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

Scientists now predict 10 to 17 named storms throughout the season, which runs June through November. Five to nine of them could become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes Category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or greater.

HURRICANE SEASON IS HERE: Get ready and stay informed at tampabay.com/hurricane

Two named storms already have formed this season. One became Hurricane Barry, a Category 1 hurricane that hit Louisiana in July. Historically, 95 percent of all Atlantic hurricanes form from August through October.

In May, forecasters predicted a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995.

Those conditions include a stronger West African monsoon, weaker wind shear across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and wind patterns coming off the coast of Africa that can spin up storms, said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster.

But El Niño has dissipated. El Niño-related wind patterns may still continue and partially offset conditions that fuel hurricanes, Bell said, but not to the extent predicted in May.

more...

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2019/08/08/above-normal-hurricane-season-now-more-likely-with-el-ninos-end-noaa-says/

Their "guess" is as good as anyone's...but still a "guess".

8 replies, 213 views

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Reply Above-Normal Hurricane Season Now More Likely With El Nios end, NOAA says (Original post)
RCW2014 Aug 2019 OP
quad489 Aug 2019 #1
USNRET1988 Aug 2019 #2
orson Aug 2019 #3
oflguy Aug 2019 #4
RCW2014 Aug 2019 #5
oflguy Aug 2019 #6
Squeek Aug 2019 #7
RCW2014 Aug 2019 #8

Response to RCW2014 (Original post)

Fri Aug 9, 2019, 12:26 PM

1. ''Above-Normal''....LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!..

...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!...LOL!!!

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Response to RCW2014 (Original post)


Response to RCW2014 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 10:07 AM

3. It's been awful quiet out there

too quiet, if you ask me.

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Response to RCW2014 (Original post)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 11:09 AM

4. Barry was never a hurricane

20 minutes after they announced it was a hurricane, they announced it was not one

Pure bullshit

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Response to oflguy (Reply #4)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:22 PM

5. Technically, yes it was even if for 5 minutes. Boo-hoo... eom

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Response to RCW2014 (Reply #5)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 12:44 PM

6. More Leftist propaganda at work

All they wanted was to pad the stats. I KNEW they were going to do it.

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Response to oflguy (Reply #6)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 02:42 PM

7. Oh for crissakes....

now the goddamned weather is a political target??? Is there nothing in this world that righties can't turn into something political???





If a tropical storm's winds reach hurricane strength for even five minutes, it's a hurricane for five minutes.

Jesus christ. Cut the crap.


Oh, and tornadoes....

It's not a tornado until the funnel cloud reaches the ground....if it reaches the ground for just two minutes, it's a tornado. If it doesn't reach the ground, it's just a funnel cloud.



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Response to Squeek (Reply #7)

Sun Aug 18, 2019, 07:31 PM

8. Must be an interesting existence some have, indeed.

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