Above-Normal Hurricane Season Now More Likely With El Nios end, NOAA says

The agency predicts five to nine hurricanes this season, two to four of them at the level of Category 3 or higher.

By Kavitha Surana

There’s an increased likelihood that this year’s Atlantic hurricane season will be above-normal now that the irregular weather pattern known as El Niño has faded, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday.

Scientists now predict 10 to 17 named storms throughout the season, which runs June through November. Five to nine of them could become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes Category 3 or higher with winds of 111 mph or greater.

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Two named storms already have formed this season. One became Hurricane Barry, a Category 1 hurricane that hit Louisiana in July. Historically, 95 percent of all Atlantic hurricanes form from August through October.

In May, forecasters predicted a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season. They expected El Niño, a hurricane suppressant that creates wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to cancel out conditions that have led to stronger hurricane activity since 1995.

Those conditions include a stronger West African monsoon, weaker wind shear across the tropical Atlantic Ocean, and wind patterns coming off the coast of Africa that can spin up storms, said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster.

But El Niño has dissipated. El Niño-related wind patterns may still continue and partially offset conditions that fuel hurricanes, Bell said, but not to the extent predicted in May.

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https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2019/08/08/above-normal-hurricane-season-now-more-likely-with-el-ninos-end-noaa-says/

Their "guess" is as good as anyone's...but still a "guess".