Moneymoney

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 03:59 PM

You're watching a market controlled completely by algorithms. Not bulls or bears, just computers.

13 replies, 286 views

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Reply You're watching a market controlled completely by algorithms. Not bulls or bears, just computers. (Original post)
joefriday6 Dec 2018 OP
batcat Dec 2018 #1
joefriday6 Dec 2018 #2
batcat Dec 2018 #3
freedumb2003 Dec 2018 #5
joefriday6 Dec 2018 #6
batcat Dec 2018 #7
freedumb2003 Dec 2018 #8
batcat Dec 2018 #9
freedumb2003 Dec 2018 #10
Grebbid Dec 2018 #4
uncledad Dec 2018 #11
Iron Condor Dec 2018 #12
Badsamm Dec 2018 #13

Response to joefriday6 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 04:01 PM

1. Exactly right. (n/t)

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Response to batcat (Reply #1)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 04:18 PM

2. I've seen it before but never this pronounced.

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Response to joefriday6 (Reply #2)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 06:03 PM

3. I wonder if the algorithms are set up to cause the market to drop dramatically...

and recover.

Big investment firms can make a ton of money if they sell high and buy low. Imagine the amount of money that could be made if investment firm computers were able to predict or even set in motion those highs and lows. Perhaps if investment firms A, B and C start selling off the computers at every other large firm join in. When the key firms start buying again the other firms also jump in.

Did robot algorithms trigger market plunge?
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-42959755

Algorithms Replacing Wall Street Analysts, Investors
https://www.cnbc.com/id/100685958

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Response to batcat (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 06:27 PM

5. That would explain a lot

 

This yo-yo-ing has been pretty crazy.

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Response to batcat (Reply #3)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 06:59 PM

6. No doubt. They could be done for any purpose. What you suggest is the most likely. One other thing

would be to get Trump out of the White House. These algorithms are complicated. Here, take a look. And these are simple ones. They basically work on past performance of markets, ie, what they do at certain times. Then a formula is developed base on past event, with programmers always looking at future events. It's way over my head.

https://stackoverflow.com/questions/19302365/simple-algorithm-modeling-stock-market-behavior

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Response to joefriday6 (Reply #6)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 07:24 PM

7. Interesting, but over my head too. (n/t)

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Response to batcat (Reply #7)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 08:46 PM

8. Pretty straightforward weighted pseudo-random predictor

 

What bothers me is it is a straight line algorithm.

If I was to write such a thing I would apply it against a Poisson distribution over a time sequence. It isn't that hard to do.

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Response to freedumb2003 (Reply #8)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 08:49 PM

9. OK. (n/t)

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Response to batcat (Reply #9)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 08:54 PM

10. College quant -- distributions just sort of stuck with me

 

I wrote a series of simulators using GPSS in college back in the late 70s.

You had to control a lot of details back then so the building blocks kind of stay with you.

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Response to joefriday6 (Original post)

Thu Dec 13, 2018, 06:10 PM

4. Market analysis has moved too much from fundamental to technical

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Response to joefriday6 (Original post)

Sat Dec 15, 2018, 11:57 AM

11. My .02 worth.

The organizations that command the finance markets use algorithms as toll booths to support themselves.

The larger the integration of a singular financial organization, the more the push-pull affect shows itself.

The US financial markets have counter parts around the globe, the toll booths are global in location.

When the biggest market shuns I phones, it shows up here in declining values of the industry in general.

The toll booths collect more than just $'s, data on consumer trends and buss orders is one other function.

From the data, the toll booths push-pull prices enforced by the direction of organization's commands.

Buying is bullish in sustained upward trending markets, bearish in the opposite or declining markets.

The bulls and the bears are still there.

It's the wolves you have to be wary of....

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Response to joefriday6 (Original post)

Tue Dec 18, 2018, 04:45 PM

12. Its been that way for a while now...

For more on the subject this 20 minute video does a good job illustrating what's going on.


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Response to joefriday6 (Original post)

Mon Dec 24, 2018, 01:57 PM

13. Just like the are designed to work.

Puppet masters are smiling

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Moneymoney