Moneymoneygdpnow

Thu Feb 14, 2019, 06:42 PM

GDPNow Latest forecast: 1.5 percent — February 14, 2019

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.5 percent on February 14, down from 2.7 percent on February 6. After this morning's retail sales and retail inventories releases from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth fell from 3.7 percent to 2.6 percent, and the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to fourth-quarter real GDP growth fell from -0.27 percentage points to -0.55 percentage points.



https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx

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Response to Isidore (Original post)

Thu Feb 14, 2019, 07:06 PM

1. That's going to upset some folks.

Looking at the good side, it's still in positive territory.

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Response to uncledad (Reply #1)

Thu Feb 14, 2019, 07:17 PM

2. Lets wait till its for reals

When Obama got that they hailed it as an Economic Miracle


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Response to Gunslinger201 (Reply #2)

Thu Feb 14, 2019, 07:44 PM

3. You should get past O at some point, new guy's been there for two plus years.

Good, bad or otherwise, it's his turn at bat, or the T box.

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Response to uncledad (Reply #3)

Thu Feb 14, 2019, 08:57 PM

4. so, which pinko dimocrat president do you want us to compare him to? go ahead, you

can pick...

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Response to uncledad (Reply #1)

Fri Feb 15, 2019, 06:49 PM

5. I expect their forecast to go back up before the BEA numbers are released at the end of the month.

With delays in economic data releases due to the shutdown, forecasting may be even less accurate than usual.

The NY Fed Nowcast is at 2.23% as of today (for what it's worth). That is closer to what I expect the BEA number will be than the current GDPNow forecast.

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Response to Isidore (Reply #5)

Fri Feb 15, 2019, 09:03 PM

6. They will pump the number up according to plan... revisions will get buried come spring

Once again, the cleanest dirty shirt in the global economy returns front and center.

What a way to run a Country.

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Response to Isidore (Original post)

Tue Feb 26, 2019, 02:53 PM

7. Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — February 26, 2019

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