Moneymoney

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 11:48 AM

 

If Trump wins, the market will crash

here is some advice on what to do if you have a portfolio: http://www.barrons.com/articles/a-guide-to-hedging-election-outcomes-1475301049?mod=BOL_hp_highlight_8

39 replies, 1792 views

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Reply If Trump wins, the market will crash (Original post)
Docbroke Oct 2016 OP
frankt8242 Oct 2016 #1
Cold Warrior Oct 2016 #2
Docbroke Oct 2016 #3
marmot84 Oct 2016 #4
Gunslinger201 Oct 2016 #12
Gunslinger201 Oct 2016 #5
Docbroke Oct 2016 #7
foia Oct 2016 #6
exindy Oct 2016 #8
Docbroke Oct 2016 #13
exindy Oct 2016 #19
Docbroke Oct 2016 #20
exindy Oct 2016 #22
Docbroke Oct 2016 #23
exindy Oct 2016 #24
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #25
exindy Oct 2016 #27
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #28
exindy Oct 2016 #29
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #30
exindy Oct 2016 #31
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #32
Ray97 Oct 2016 #9
Docbroke Oct 2016 #14
Ray97 Oct 2016 #18
Docbroke Oct 2016 #21
Mouth of Chaos Oct 2016 #10
smalllivingeddy Oct 2016 #11
Docbroke Oct 2016 #15
rahtruelies Oct 2016 #16
Docbroke Oct 2016 #17
FreeWheelBurning Oct 2016 #26
Dumper Oct 2016 #34
Dumper Oct 2016 #33
Docbroke Oct 2016 #35
Badsamm Oct 2016 #36
Post removed Feb 2017 #37
Fred Sanford Feb 2017 #38
Mr Happy Feb 2017 #39

Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:01 PM

1. More than "the market"..!!!

 

The entire world economy will disintegrate..!!!
Hey....Maybe those "apocalypse predictors" weren't ALL crazy..????

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:04 PM

2. If the Brits vote to leave the EU...

1. An emergency budget will have to be put into place to ensure liquidity
2. The FTSE will crash
3. A debt of 4500 GDP will be added to every British household.


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Response to Cold Warrior (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:06 PM

3. A little insurance never hurt

 

another option is to raise cash, but if Trump loses, you miss the gains...

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:07 PM

4. Trump won't win

sign me up for the blue chips

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Response to marmot84 (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:27 PM

12. Its a change election

The Country is in the crapper and Obama is a failure

Barring Cheating Trump will win by 10 points

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:14 PM

5. Keep registering Dead People, you'll need them

Last edited Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:26 PM - Edit history (1)

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Response to Gunslinger201 (Reply #5)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:27 PM

7. For buying put option?

 

How do you figure??

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:20 PM

6. If Trump wins the market won't matter

Strange Luck posted some polls indicating he will start a nuclear war.

And we all know polls are never wrong.

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:43 PM

8. And that's a bad thing, because?

Breaking news...

the people who would be crashed need a come to jesus moment. Teach them some humility.

Maybe they can move into their mom's basement -- assuming they didn't already destroy her mortgage.

The market doubled under Obama.

The deplorables are thrilled at a 2% raise.

F'em.

Oh noes, run away, run away, be afraid.

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Response to exindy (Reply #8)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:46 PM

13. You missed the point

 

Protect your assets.

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #13)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:51 PM

19. You missed the point.

The bulk of the people don't have assets in the market. Just over half the people don't own one share of stock.

If the market crashes, the Epipen lady won't get her $19 million bonus, she'll have to get by on her $1 million salary. (or whatever those numbers are).

And how would that affect those who don't have a portfolio?

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Response to exindy (Reply #19)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:58 PM

20. No worries

 

If you don't have assets, no need to hedge....

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #20)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 04:01 PM

22. An old Occupy sign says it best

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Response to exindy (Reply #22)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 04:02 PM

23. Immaterial to protecting your assets...

 

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #23)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 04:06 PM

24. I think you keep trying to get some moisture out of that rock

The people who are supporting Trump lost their assets a while back.

Many of the people who supported everyone but Hillary knows where those assets went.

The market could drop by almost half and the people hurt are the ones who don't have any assets but money.

F'em.

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Response to exindy (Reply #19)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:07 PM

25. What % have a stake through IRAs, 401ks or pension plans? NT

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #25)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:20 PM

27. Which are all protected.

What does the common working guy have in his 401?

The $19 million? It's a promissory note given away as a bonus. None of that money was deposited by that person.

Tough.

Standard bullshit argument by the money players to try to pretend that what they do is equivalent to what some poor guy who worked for the money does.

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Response to exindy (Reply #27)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:27 PM

28. That doesn't answer my question.

With regards to your response, I don't know how much the working guy has in his 401, IRA or pension plan.

I do know that when the market goes down, the working guy takes a hit and it is usually more painful to the working guy than the elite.

How is a 401k protected during a market downturn? I never saw any form of protection.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #28)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:38 PM

29. How's about dam little.

The current market is totally different from your father's market.

Very little working guys money goes anywhere near the market. If I remember the teacher's union had filed suit against a number of banks because they were redirecting their funds without accountability.

As I said, this is the normal bait and switch argument to try to pretend that some little guy whose $30k is in a municipal bond fund is the same as what the hedge fund guy does with his $5 billion gambling in the market.

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Response to exindy (Reply #29)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:46 PM

30. You are making an ambiguos statement

You say "very little working guys money goes anywhere near the market". What does very little mean? Middle class workers literally have tens of billions of dollars in the market through 401ks, IRAs and pension plans.

The point of my post is that many in the middle class get hurt when the market goes south. What happens to hedge fund guys has no bearing on my point. You introduced that angle and it has nothing to do with my post since I am talking about the middle class working guy.

I agree with you that a bond fund is not the same as a hedge fund manager but that has nothing to do with my post.

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Response to FreeWheelBurning (Reply #30)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 01:37 PM

31. Back to that bait and switch.

Collectively millions and millions of middle class have billions in the market. Individually they have very little. As I said half of the workers don't have one share of stock.

That vast bulk of the money in the market is held by very few individuals and a few more corporations.

They are the ones who will take the hit. Who controls the message? Hmm, methinks they protest too much.

Many in the middle class won't even notice. Just chuckle and head off to work to clean up the splats on Wall Street.

Just how much sympathy would someone who missed out on a $10 million stock bonus get in a line at McDs?

Do I really give a shit if Caterpiller didn't meet their profit goal?

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Response to exindy (Reply #31)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 01:52 PM

32. It is not a bait and switch

Read what I wrote. I said that many middle class workers would be hurt by a downturn in the market. You may or may not agree with that statement but I have been consistent in my posts. There is no bait and switch.

I understand that the bulk of the money in the market is held by few individuals. That fact does not diminish the effect of a market crash on the middle class.

I keep talking about the middle class and you keep talking about hedge fund managers, people missing out on 10$ million dollar stock bonuses and Caterpiller. What do they have to do with the middle class? Absolutely nothing. Note that you are switching the topic from the middle class to the upper class, not I.

I think you underestimate how much the middle class participates in 401ks, IRAs and pension plans that are invested in the market. Hard to say since you have refused clarify statements such as "very little". Granted, the middle class does have "little" compared to big investors. However, the middle classes "little" is a big piece of their personal financial situation. A market crash disproportionally hurts the middle class when what "little" they have drops by 10-15%. The big boys can laugh it off and jump in on the buying opportunity. Not so for the majority of the middle class.

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 12:55 PM

9. You mean the market

that's artificially proped up with negative interest rates?
Trump makes it into office and THATS what's going to cause the markets to collapse.
It won't be the student debt bubble? Or the metric fuckton of sketchy derivatives floating around the world markets waiting, just waiting? Or any one of the myriad of reasons markets crash?
It'll be because a bunch of dummasses elected Trump?
If that was does it, bring it. My house is paid for, I can grow my own food.

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Response to Ray97 (Reply #9)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:47 PM

14. You missed the point

 

Protect your assets.

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #14)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:51 PM

18. My 401

Is in a regular IRA for now. I put it in there just before the Brexit vote. We'll see what happens after the election.

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Response to Ray97 (Reply #18)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:59 PM

21. You can buy S&P puts

 

To hedge then. Might be worth a call to your broker..

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 01:14 PM

10. TRUMPOCALYPSE!

The Trumpageddon is at hand!

The RagnaTrumperock!

The Coming of the TRUMPUTIN!

You are all my children, and you're lost because you follow blind leaders. These false gods, systems of the weak, they've ruined my world. No more.

Everything they've built will fall! And from the ashes of their world, we'll build a better one!

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 02:38 PM

11. I would think that the comment is obvious

and the site superfluous, but then again, I aced my economics minor.

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Response to smalllivingeddy (Reply #11)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:48 PM

15. Nothing wrong with a little insurance.

 

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:48 PM

16. and then bounce back in 60 - 90 days

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Response to rahtruelies (Reply #16)

Sat Oct 1, 2016, 03:49 PM

17. Perhaps

 

May take a few years too. I am at the age where i don't have decades of investing left....

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Response to Docbroke (Reply #17)

Mon Oct 3, 2016, 12:08 PM

26. Then you should lower your exposure to equities and increase bond holdings. NT

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Response to rahtruelies (Reply #16)

Tue Oct 4, 2016, 07:38 AM

34. Can u say BREXIT?

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Tue Oct 4, 2016, 07:37 AM

33. You mean no more artificial market support from the FED? Good.

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Response to Dumper (Reply #33)

Tue Oct 4, 2016, 08:16 AM

35. Did not mean that.

 

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Wed Oct 5, 2016, 02:34 AM

36. So Trump bought all those derivatives, and inflated all these bubbles?

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)


Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Tue Feb 14, 2017, 04:20 PM

38. Bump!

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Response to Docbroke (Original post)

Fri Feb 17, 2017, 04:58 PM

39. I predict the market (Dow) will be up over 20,000 about a month after he takes office! eom

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Moneymoney