Page: « Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 27 Next »


Profile Information

Member since: Tue May 13, 2014, 06:50 PM
Number of posts: 5,448

Journal Archives

DOW 25886

Previous close 25579. 52 wk high 27398. 52 wk low 21712. Today's low 25678. High 25929. DOW + 1%

Last Friday DOW 26287.

NASDAQ : 7895 ▲ +1.6%

S&P : 2888 ▲ +1.4%

Soybeans : 8.67 ▲

WTI crude oil 54.87 ▲

A positive note for the end of the week. Stay safe and enjoy the weekend everyone.

The cost of the "strong" U.S. economy

Despite massive amounts of money being pumped into the economy by both fiscal and monetary policy, U.S. growth is slowing, not accelerating.

Driving the news: The U.S. budget deficit rose by nearly $120 billion in July, a 27% increase over a year ago, the Treasury Department announced Monday. The fiscal year deficit through July is now $866.8 billion, higher than the entire deficit from fiscal 2018 and on pace to top $1 trillion, making it the largest U.S. deficit since 2011.

A new agreement signed in July to avert another government shutdown and possible debt default will add an additional $320 billion in spending over the next 2 years, but will do little to increase U.S. competitiveness and growth, experts say.

Reality check: The spending binge that has taken place during the late stages of an economic recovery has U.S. GDP on pace to grow around 2% this year, which is about the average for the previous 8 years.


The Atlanta Fed raised its GDPNow forecast to 2.2% for the third quarter — higher than many economists are predicting, but well below enough to bring 2019's growth to the 3%-4% President Trump has sought.

Why it matters: The bump came after U.S. retail sales surged above expectations in July and sales at retailers including Amazon and Best Buy posted their biggest increase in 4 months. A strong earnings report from Walmart also helped drive optimism that American consumers are still shopping and perhaps are confident enough to carry the economy through trade war tensions.

DOW 25579

Previous close 25479. 52 wk high 27398. 52 wk low 21712. Today's low 25339. High 25629

NASDAQ : 7766 ▼

S&P : 28547 ▲

Soybeans : 8.58 ▼

WTI crude oil : 54.65 ▼

Chinas commodity imports surge, confound trade war fears

Forget the drop in the dollar value of China’s imports in July, the important numbers were the bumper purchases of major commodities including crude oil, coal, iron ore and copper.

The 5.6% drop in the dollar value of July imports is almost irrelevant and most likely a reflection of lower commodity prices rather than any weakness in the Chinese economy.

Even more bullish for copper was the 41% surge in imports of ores and concentrates to 2.074 million tonnes in July, the highest on record.

While there are temporary factors that may explain some of the strength in China’s imports of major commodities, it’s becoming increasingly hard to sustain a case that they are being adversely affected by the ongoing trade dispute with the United States.

How Hong Kong clashes could wallop the U.S stock market

Protests in Hong Kong that have persisted for the past two months could eventually deliver a more lasting blow to U.S. and global markets, market strategists and geopolitical experts told MarketWatch.

The Hong Kong Hang Seng (HK:HSI) slipped 0.4% on Monday and is down 7% so far in August and nearly 10% over the past three months, according to FactSet data. The exchange traded iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH) one of the most popular funds used to gain exposure to Hong Kong stocks, was down 3.2% in Monday and has fallen 9.5% so far in August and 12.4% over the past 90 days.

“In addition, the Chinese media have already accused the U.S. of being behind the protests — or at least encouraging them — tying the unrest in Hong Kong to the greater trade dispute with the U.S.,” Zaccarelli said.

“The big fear is that Beijing could respond with force of the kind seared into memories about Tiananmen Square. If so, assessments of the Politburo would also have to be revised to stand at a more pessimistic view. In turn, markets would have to become less hopeful of the degree and speed of progress possible on a whole host of fronts, including trade,” Ken Odeluga, market analyst at City Index told MarketWatch.

DOW 25479

Previous close 26279. 52 wk high 27398. 52 wk low 21712. Today's low 25471. High 26035. DOW -3 %

NASDAQ : 7773 ▼ NASDAQ -3 %

S&P : 2840 ▼ S&P - 2.9 %

Soybeans : 8.70 ▼

Crude oil WTI : 55.10 - 3.5%

Not a good day.

DOW 26279

Previous close 25896. 52 wk high 27938. 52 wk low 21712. Today's low 25833. High 26426.

NASDAQ : 8016 ▲

S&P : 2926 ▲

Soybeans : 8.71 ▲

I'd like to see Wilbur Ross's phone logs.

Negative interest rates: absolutely everything you need to know


Negative interest rates have become part of the central bank’s toolkit for responding to an economic downturn when nominal interest rates are already very low. They have worked largely as interest rate policy does in positive territory. This is a success and shows that central banks have a bit more firepower than they thought they had.

However, there are limits to how far interest rates can fall below zero in the absence of further measures to reduce general financial and economic risks.

With lacklustre growth, high unemployment and stubbornly low investment activity in many economies, policy-makers may want to do more, and monetary policy is far from the only option, although other types of monetary policy measures can be used. Public investment projects and a boost to government spending more generally can go a long way in complementing rate cuts. Government spending has a good track record when it comes to boosting growth, particularly when interest rates are low.

Supply-side reforms, ideally combined with fiscal policies, can also help to make economies more competitive and productive by improving the functioning of markets, upgrading educational systems, building critical infrastructure and unleashing entrepreneurship and innovation. Such measures will increase the potential for future growth. If this is understood – and believed – by the public, it could also increase confidence here and now, boosting spending and growth.

Dow 25896

Previous close 26287. 52 wk high 27398. 52 wk low 21712. Today's low 25824. High 26178.

NASDAQ : 7863 ▼

S&P : 2882 ▼

Soybeans : 8.62 ▼

Go to Page: « Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 ... 27 Next »