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graham4anything4HC45

Profile Information

Member since: Thu May 22, 2014, 01:34 PM
Number of posts: 31,106

About Me

Working to keep the agenda of President Obama forever. Michelle, Kamala, Cory, Deval, Eric, Elizabeth, Sheryl, Cecile, Elijah,John Lewis, Dr King, LBJ. And a woman shall lead us. "Doesn't matter I I'm not enough, for the future or the things to come"(C)EG)."There's a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in"(c)Leonard Cohen, anthem

Journal Archives

and don't forget that volcano we all built

is (OMG) a dirty bombbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

look out

pea soup a coming




run
OMG



send in the
Posted by graham4anything4HC45 | Sun Sep 27, 2015, 06:31 AM (1 replies)

Joe Biden Edges Past Bernie Sanders in New National Poll,- Hillary 71%favorable in same poll

Hillary 71% favorable to Democratic Party voters, only 17% unfavorable.
Which is one great number and lays asunder the memes the media is saying (as are all the rightwing conspiracy against her proven debunked time and time again.
And this is great news for Joe Biden. not even running and he is in 2nd.
As they say for the lotto, you gotta be in the Democratic Party to win it.
And her lead over the 2nd place Biden is far greater by far than Trumps lead over the second place finisher in his party.
Party on! The Democratic Party rocks!

Biden is the Schmidt/Gratham/Rasmussen to Hillary's Joe Willie Namath.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/joe-biden-edges-past-bernie-sanders-new-national-poll-n423471
Joe Biden Edges Past Bernie Sanders in New National Poll

by Carrie Dann

Vice President Joe Biden has edged past Bernie Sanders in a new national poll of Democratic voters, while Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Democratic field but has lost ground since last month.

The new Monmouth University poll shows that 42 percent of Democrats back Clinton, 22 percent support Biden and 20 percent favor Sanders. It has been a significant boost for Biden, who has yet to make a decision about whether he'll seek the presidency. Biden secured 12 percent support when Monmouth polled Democrats last month.

Biden is also enjoying a boost in his favorability rating, with 71 percent of Democrats giving him a thumbs up, while only nine percent hold a negative view. Last month, 67 percent viewed him favorably, while 14 percent viewed him unfavorably.

Despite losing ground in the new poll, Clinton is still viewed in a positive light by the vast majority of Democratic voters. Her favorability rating has remained stable at 71 percent favorable, 17 percent unfavorable. Her lead of 20 points over her next closest challenger also represents a more robust status as a frontrunner than her GOP counterpart.

Posted by graham4anything4HC45 | Tue Sep 8, 2015, 02:17 PM (5 replies)

I agree Charlotte will look so adorable like JFK Jr and Caroline were in the White House.

and Bill Clinton talked to JFK and there is a great picture of the two of them.

here's the iconic photograph for the ages-
Camelot 3 The Dream lives on (President Obama and Michelle Obama are Camelot 2)

Posted by graham4anything4HC45 | Fri Sep 4, 2015, 08:43 AM (2 replies)

Electoral-vote.com : 2016 Primary & Caucus & Super Delegate article

Note- the votemaster at electoral-vote.com allows articles to be put on places like this
as long as it is attributed with link to his wonderful site.
New Map Shows Dates of Primaries and Caucuses

Note- clicking on the link today shows a new map of the USA broken down by date of primaries/caucus
(c)vote-master@electoral-vote.com

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2015/Pres/Maps/Aug31.html#item-1
New Map Shows Dates of Primaries and Caucuses

The new map above shows the tentative dates of the primaries and caucuses starting next February. Some states have not finalized the dates yet. The color coding is for the Republican events, although in most states the Democrats and Republicans have the same kind of event (primary or caucus) and on the same day, but not always. After the long drawn out primary campaign in 2012, RNC (Republican National Committee) chairman Reince Priebus wanted to get it over quickly this year, so the rules were changed to encourage a rapid selection of the nominee. There are basically four main rules:
1.No primaries or caucuses in January
2.Only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada may choose delegates in February
3.Primaries and caucuses before March 15 must divide delegates proportionally to the vote
4.On or after March 15, states may choose proportional representation or winner-take-all as they prefer

States that violate the rules lose most of their delegates.

For this reason, the early March states are colored differently than the late March states. Super Tuesday (March 1) is so important it rates its own designation.

Many of these dates are tentative and could change. In reality, the system is more complicated than it looks. Some states have a caucus and a primary, often with one of them nonbinding. There are also county, congressional district, and state conventions. If it is close in either party, these details could matter. The Green Papers are a good source on the dates and events.

One extremely unforeseen consequence of this system is that if Donald Trump is still on top in March, even if he has only 25% of the vote, he will be collecting all the delegates in the winner-take-all states. The goal was to get a nominee quickly, but the GOP leadership was thinking of Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, or Marco Rubio, not Trump. This means if Trump is still leading the polls when Iowa rolls around on Feb. 1, they don't have a lot of time to stop him.

The one date that might derail Trump is Super Tuesday, March 1, when a dozen states vote, more than half in the South. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is betting the farm on Super Tuesday and campaigning vigorously in the March 1 Southern states. If he does well and the main contenders starting March 2 are Trump and Cruz, the new party slogan will be: "Houston, we have a problem."

It is slowly becoming clear why Trump continues to draw support. Republican operators, from Lee Atwater to Karl Rove to Roger Stone, have for years used a strategy of telling the base that bedrock principles of the Republican Party were stopping abortions and gay marriages, and related social issues, when they knew very well the leadership said that only to attract votes from low-information base voters. As soon as they got elected, what Republicans have done is fight hard for lower taxes for the rich and less regulation for business. The suckers never knew what hit them. The Trump phenomenon suggests that some of the base voters have finally awakened to the con game and have lost faith in the Republican establishment, so they have jumped on Trump's bandwagon. Getting them off may be tricky, and the winner-take-all primaries mean that unless he can be derailed by March 15, things may get a bit dicey. While the public doesn't understand this, you can be sure that Reince Priebus, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH), the Republican leaders, understand it extremely well.

and...from the same update-
(c)vote-master@electoral-vote.com
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2015/Pres/Maps/Aug31.html#item-2
Clinton May Have 20% of the Needed Delegates Already

Despite the media pushing hard for a Joe Biden candidacy, the real name of the game is getting delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Many of the delegates are so-called "superdelegates," mostly elected and party officials. Of the 4483 delegates to the DNC, 1200 are party leaders and elected officials (PLEOs). To get the nomination, a candidate needs 2242 delegates. The PLEOs overwhelmingly support Hillary Clinton and one report says she has already locked down 440 (20%) of the delegates needed for the nomination. This development may make it even harder for Joe Biden or Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) to wrest the nomination from her.

It is important to understand why there are so many "Biden is running" stories floating around. First, the headline "Hillary still ahead" is not nearly as exciting as "Biden now a serious threat to Hillary." Thus media outlets strongly prefer the latter to the former, especially since nobody knows where things really stand. Second, the media really dislike Clinton and vice versa. If a reporter asks Bernie Sanders for an interview, the response is: "What time?" With Clinton it is more like: "I'm busy." Not surprisingly then, they tend to run a lot of negative stories about her email server, never mentioning that Republican Colin Powell also had a private email server when he was Secretary of State.

If the story about the superdelegates is true it shows that Clinton is capable of learning from mistakes, an important characteristic in a candidate and in the President. In 2008, she blew the nomination fundamentally because she (and her guru, Mark Penn) didn't actually understand the rules of the game. All Democratic primaries then were proportional and were often divided into congressional districts. So if a state had, say, 10 districts, each with two delegates, and she won 60% of the vote in each one, she would get 2.4 delegates to Obama's 1.6 delegates. Unfortunately, delegates are real people who can't be sliced into tenths, so this lopsided victory would give her two delegates per district and Obama also two. In a state with 10 districts, they would each get 20 delegates, despite the huge victory. Clinton was expecting to clean up big time on Super Tuesday and didn't think much about what was going to happen afterwards. Due to the proportionality rule, she didn't nail down the nomination on Super Tuesday and wasn't at all prepared for the caucuses in the small red states that followed. In many cases Obama was able to get a few thousand caucus goers to show up in small red states and collect delegates here and there. Eventually his lead was insurmountable.

If Clinton is now working to get all the superdelegates signed up, it shows that she understands the rules now. The goal is not to make Rush Limbaugh love her or score high in national polls or win Iowa. It is about getting 2242 delegates, and if that is best done quietly behind the scenes, that is the way to go.


EDIT TO ADD-
the vote-master (c) allows reproducing his updates as long as they are fully linked and credited back
to his wonderful site. electoral-vote.com
and these are
(c)vote-master@electoral-vote.com
august 31, 2015
Posted by graham4anything4HC45 | Tue Sep 1, 2015, 09:48 AM (0 replies)
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