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Member since: Thu May 22, 2014, 01:34 PM
Number of posts: 31,106

About Me

Working to keep the agenda of President Obama forever. Michelle, Kamala, Cory, Deval, Eric, Elizabeth, Sheryl, Cecile, Elijah,John Lewis, Dr King, LBJ. And a woman shall lead us. "Doesn't matter I I'm not enough, for the future or the things to come"(C)EG)."There's a crack in everything, that's how the light gets in"(c)Leonard Cohen, anthem

Journal Archives

Prof. Dr. Sam Wang- NO Path for Bernie Sanders, but it's a long one

I have to say Sam is spot-on perfect here. Numbers don't lie.
(and this was written after Saturday's results were known and taken into account, and as Sam says,
Saturday changed absolutely nothing.

One thing Sanders understands well is the need for a horserace. Without that, he and his principal issue, economic inequality, won’t get covered.

It is possible to put a probability on the outcome that Sanders has outlined above: less than 5%. It’s also possible to calculate how long he can keep saying there’s a path: until June 7th.

For estimating the outcome of the Democratic nomination race, thanks to the relatively transparent rules, it is not necessary to game out individual states. Indeed, excessive focus on detail can confuse matters.
For national opinion to come into line with what Sanders needs, there would have to be a change from Clinton +9.5% to Sanders +12%. That’s a 22-point swing. To put that into perspective, that is about how much the Clinton-Sanders margin has moved over the last seven months, since the start of August. Going forward, opinion would have to start moving about three times faster. And for this to happen, Sanders would have to start to cut into Clinton’s support, which has stayed in the 50-55% range this whole season. Basically, her support would have to drop to 40%. That simply isn’t going to happen.
Posted by graham4anything4HC45 | Mon Mar 28, 2016, 06:27 AM (18 replies)
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