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FreeWheelBurning

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Gender: Do not display
Hometown: West Berlin, NJ
Home country: US
Current location: Ledyard, CT
Member since: Wed Dec 16, 2015, 04:14 PM
Number of posts: 5,305

Journal Archives

Florida could knock Trump out early on Tuesday evening

6.42 million of Florida's 12.9 million active registered voters have already voted. The following is the breakdown by party.

Dems: 2.55 million
Reps: 2.47 million
Inds: 1.23

The Dems have an 87,000 vote lead if you assume that everyone voted for their parties candidate. That does not take into account the votes from the independents.

Clinton currently has a 1 point lead in the RCP average. Three of the polls used in the average provided a breakdown by party. The following list shows how the unaffiliated voters have been breaking in the polls.

CBS/You Guv - Trump, 47-34
Remington - Trump, 49-36
Quinnipiac - Trump, 46-40

Why is this important?

Right now, again using the RCP average, Clinton has a 298-240 lead in the Electoral College and that includes Florida. If Florida switches to Trump, (Clinton +1 right now) the Electoral College becomes a 269-269 tie.

Trump winning Florida does not mean Clinton loses. Trump still has to win NH, NC, OH, IA, AZ and NV. Out of those states, IA, NV, NC, OH and NH are within 3 with Trump currently in the lead.

Clinton has a couple of states of her own that could be in play. CO is 2.9 for Clinton and PA is 2.4 for Clinton.

If the RCP average holds with the exception of FL, we will have to wait until late Tuesday night to see the results from NV. If FL does remain Clinton, the race is over unless Trump can take MI and PA.







Posted by FreeWheelBurning | Mon Nov 7, 2016, 10:51 AM (4 replies)

Today's general election polls

Election day is fast approaching and I have started to look more closely at individual polls than the RCP average. Here is a list of polls showing where they currently are, what the result of the last poll was and the trend.

Rasmussen
Current: Trump +3
Previous: Clinton +1
Trend: Trump +4

IDB/TIPP Tracking
Current: Tie
Previous: Clinton +4
Trend: Trump +4

ABC/Wash Post Tracking
Current: Clinton +2
Previous: Clinton +4
Trend: Trump +2

Economist/YouGov
Current: Clinton +3
Previous: Clinton +5
Trend: Trump +2

NBC News/SM
Current: Clinton +6
Previous: Clinton +5
Trend: Clinton +1

Gravis
Current: Clinton +1
Previous: Tie
Trend: Clinton +1



Posted by FreeWheelBurning | Thu Nov 3, 2016, 11:01 AM (7 replies)

EC update - 304-232, 1Nov16

Based on the latest RCP averages, Clinton is leading the EC 304-232.

There has been a little movement Trump's way in the past week. Florida has flipped from Clinton to Trump and Trump has gained 2.8 in VA. Virginia still looks safe for Clinton at +5.2

For Clinton, she has expanded her lead in New Hampshire from 3.6 to 4.7.

All other moves in the past week have been minor.

Trump has a tough challenge ahead of him. Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina are all at +2 for Clinton or under. Even if Trump were to get all 3 of these he would need one more state somewhere. Colorado is the closest at +4 Clinton.

The general vote is at +2.2 Clinton. The trend is against her. She had a +7 lead on October 17th.

Clinton is still poised to win this election but it has gotten a lot closer than I thought it would be.

Posted by FreeWheelBurning | Tue Nov 1, 2016, 02:33 PM (9 replies)
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