Politicspoliticstrumpwhitevoters


Response to daemons (Original post)

Thu Mar 17, 2016, 02:48 PM

37. Not the entire picture.

Clinton would have to win 90+% of the AA vote, 75% of the Latino vote, and 60+% of those under 50 with a massive turn out of each of those divisions. Anything less, by racial group or by age group makes it an election within a normal national election margins.

I would not count on the youth vote turning out in large numbers, Clinton does not do well in that field. Considering they did not vote for her when Obama ran his campaign. Or AA voters, other than party loyalists, granted there are more likely to vote a straight D ticket, there isn't the cultural appeal of voting for a fellow AA.

Who will bring in the greater of the white vote? I would think the Donald would. He has a broader appeal to independents and should they come out in large enough numbers, then you've got a very competitive election.

Independents did not come out for Romney, nor for Obama in large numbers in that election cycle. The first being an unlikable candidate and the second a large disappointment among those who elected him to his first term.

Independents know what they are getting with Clinton and it's not a positive reaction on their part. They haven't decided on the Donald, but, are apprehensive of what they've seen so far. They won't decide until after the national debates. And even then it will be very close.

Judging this far out in the GE cycle based on Obama's turn out, I think is more a what if, than a well paved way to the White House.

And I haven't even mentioned Sanders, who is still in the D race or a brokered R convention and going third party.

Consider, none of the demographics will matter should a terrorist attack of significance happen on US soil.

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